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Prediction markets for Inter
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.7%chance
835518679
OptionVotes
58873
10436
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
Jul 19, 2:27 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
16.49%chance
22091568
OptionVotes
22645
4161
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.01%chance
255857
OptionVotes
14146
7120
Will humans receive a message from an extraterrestrial or inter-dimensional intelligence before the end of 2027?
Aug 27, 5:59 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
3.45%chance
403153
OptionVotes
2574
873
Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US state by 2030?
Jun 30, 1:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.67%chance
272055
OptionVotes
1283
918
Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?
Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM
72.51%chance
301827
OptionVotes
1052
963
What will be the distribution of inter-day returns of the S&P500 for 2026?
Dec 7, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31487
OptionProbability
92
91
79
75
54
28
21
8
8
Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2026?
Feb 11, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
93.41%chance
131326
OptionVotes
492
54
Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2027?
Feb 11, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.17%chance
11870
OptionVotes
171
112
Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037
Apr 17, 1:29 PMJan 1, 1:29 PM
56%chance
12680
OptionVotes
1270
707
OptionVotes
229
44
Will OpenAI model win first "inter-AI-model diplomacy" game where the game is EU4/5, Civ6/7, or AoE2 Regicide Rumble?
Jul 17, 11:22 PMJan 1, 12:21 AM
50%chance
228
OptionVotes
100
100
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