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Top stories

Liverpool Survive Newcastle Thriller; Inter Rout Torino 5-0 in Serie A Opener

Liverpool Survive Newcastle Thriller; Inter Rout Torino 5-0 in Serie A Opener

Authors

21

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Inter

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69104

9470

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.42%chance

8578624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23416

4271

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.95%chance

265875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14165

7111

Will humans receive a message from an extraterrestrial or inter-dimensional intelligence before the end of 2027?

Aug 27, 5:59 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

3.45%chance

403153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2574

873

Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US state by 2030?

Jun 30, 1:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.67%chance

272055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

918

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

72.51%chance

301827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

963

What will be the distribution of inter-day returns of the S&P500 for 2026?

Dec 7, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31762

OptionProbability

p(x ≥ -2)

p(x ≥ -1)

p(x ≥ -.50)

p(x ≥ -.250)

p(x ≥ 0)

p(x ≥ .250)

p(x ≥ .50)

p(x ≥ 1.0)

p(x ≥ 2.0)

95

92

79

72

54

33

21

8

5

Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2026?

Feb 11, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.41%chance

131326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

492

54

Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2027?

Feb 11, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.09%chance

141070

OptionVotes

NO

YES

221

85

Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037

Apr 17, 1:29 PMJan 1, 1:29 PM

66%chance

13944

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1513

552

Will Inter Miami qualify for the 2029 Club World Cup?

Jun 24, 3:04 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

16%chance

6464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Will OpenAI model win first "inter-AI-model diplomacy" game where the game is EU4/5, Civ6/7, or AoE2 Regicide Rumble?

Jul 17, 11:22 PMJan 1, 12:21 AM

50%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Soccer
Sports
Liverpool Survive Newcastle Thriller; Inter Rout Torino 5-0 in Serie A Opener
Authors
21
1 year ago

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