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Prediction markets for IPS
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
90%chance
32794264
OptionVotes
17704
4439
Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.82%chance
2367928
OptionVotes
6421
4082
OptionVotes
10443
9576
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69%chance
11739485
OptionVotes
15373
6183
[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.58%chance
8132042
OptionVotes
9023
1253
Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?
Feb 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10017189
OptionProbability
51
34
33
32
29
28
28
25
24
23
23
23
23
22
20
19
18
18
17
17
17
16
14
14
14
13
12
11
11
9
5
3
Will Apple power Siri using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic before 2026?
May 25, 4:58 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM
10%chance
324569
OptionVotes
526
76
OptionVotes
1013
979
Which franchise will FromSoftware’s next officially announced game belong to?
Apr 5, 1:51 PMDec 31, 1:37 PM
7191
OptionProbability
55
12
9
5
5
4
3
3
3
Will any DeSci DAO fund any IP which produces $10m of revenue by 2030
Aug 30, 8:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
53.22%chance
3101
OptionVotes
73
67
Will AI developed molecules or drugs be the dominant sources of new biopharma IP by Sep 5 2029?
Sep 5, 10:48 PMMay 4, 9:59 PM
73.75%chance
5100
OptionVotes
168
60
OptionVotes
149
67