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Top stories

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

Authors

15

9 months ago

JNIM and IS-Sahel Militants Seize VDP Positions, Kill Soldiers in Burkina Faso and Mali Amid UK Travel Warning

JNIM and IS-Sahel Militants Seize VDP Positions, Kill Soldiers in Burkina Faso and Mali Amid UK Travel Warning

Authors

5

9 months ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Authors

5

8 months ago

Prediction markets for IS

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

322658469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

2288

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

18.86%chance

568270797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10826

5599

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

26.46%chance

132156155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166695

59990

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55%chance

22050820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2545

1107

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

38.27%chance

6939358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

63161

40169

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

43.1%chance

8033265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

678

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.44%chance

7915381

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1133

897

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

52.73%chance

2612335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10470

9558

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.52%chance

639493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11868

8426

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

208133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

9625

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12472

8018

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