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Prediction markets for IS
OptionVotes
185221
53989
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
68.86%chance
328673400
OptionVotes
2756
2354
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
54.8%chance
22150925
OptionVotes
2550
1100
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.55%chance
8250361
OptionVotes
28550
2982
OptionVotes
1455
542
OptionVotes
42067
2377
OptionVotes
16683
6050
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.74%chance
4615921
OptionVotes
15753
6501
OptionProbability
1122
904
US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028
Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
22.11%chance
910947
OptionVotes
18772
5327
Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029
Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
22.08%chance
129959
OptionVotes
18787
5319
Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]
Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM
49.98%chance
218159
OptionVotes
10346
9625