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Top stories

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

US Foreign Policy

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

Authors

29

9 months ago

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Authors

3

9 months ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Authors

5

8 months ago

Burkina Faso Expels UN Resident Coordinator Over Report on Child Rights

Authors

4

9 months ago

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

Authors

15

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Islamic State

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

33.96%chance

15066372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

717

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.97%chance

8831716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11531

1939

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

286282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

831

Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?

Mar 17, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.94%chance

202750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

438

23

Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?

Mar 27, 1:11 PMDec 31, 2:09 PM

3.36%chance

312367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

536

19

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

352101

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

Will Syria be Secular?

28

25

19

18

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

201921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2585

387

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.19%chance

281531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

40

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

181345

OptionProbability

Deal with minimal concessions

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with major concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

43

36

8

6

3

3

1

1

How many UN members will recognize Somaliland at the end of 2026?

Dec 30, 1:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8472

OptionProbability

0–1

2

3

4 +

57

30

7

6

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.52%chance

12416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

384

324

Is Hamza Bin Laden (Osama’s Son) Still Alive? 💣💥🧨✈️

May 14, 2:04 PMMay 15, 1:55 PM

80.47%chance

4146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

49

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