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Top stories

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

US Foreign Policy

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

Authors

29

7 months ago

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

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3

7 months ago

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Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Authors

5

7 months ago

Burkina Faso Expels UN Resident Coordinator Over Report on Child Rights

Authors

4

7 months ago

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

Authors

15

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Islamic State

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

8334605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

8324930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7870

2985

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMMar 23, 11:59 PM

12019903

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Masoud Pezeshkian

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Sadegh Larijani

Maryam Rajavi

Ali Larijani

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

33

30

10

5

5

5

3

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Iran Government falls before end of March 2026

Mar 3, 4:51 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

3.09%chance

6211690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5599

179

Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?

Mar 3, 2:11 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

2.05%chance

383057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

691

14

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.55%chance

182209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

711

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

15.16%chance

191786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2366

423

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

331247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?

Jun 22, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4543

OptionProbability

>3 months

>6 months

>1 year

>2 years

>5 years

77

56

45

35

20

Will donald trump strike nigeria again

Dec 27, 6:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.73%chance

14401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

Dec 16, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.59%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

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