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Top stories

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

US Foreign Policy

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

Authors

29

1 year ago

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Authors

3

1 year ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Authors

5

1 year ago

Burkina Faso Expels UN Resident Coordinator Over Report on Child Rights

Authors

4

1 year ago

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Islamic State

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.1%chance

9858276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23237

879

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22457226

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

85

6

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

84.59%chance

439809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2343

427

Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?

Mar 17, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

306865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

569

18

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

393903

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

29

16

11

10

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

11.73%chance

252970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2743

365

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.93%chance

291557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

363

28

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

79.58%chance

341276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

51

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

311019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

377

27

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

41.12%chance

16792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

334

How many UN members will recognize Somaliland at the end of 2026?

Dec 30, 1:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8692

OptionProbability

0–1

2

3

4 +

74

19

5

2

Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?

Mar 23, 1:53 AMJan 1, 2:53 AM

12%chance

13352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

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