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Top stories

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

US Foreign Policy

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

Authors

29

1 year ago

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Authors

3

1 year ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Authors

5

1 year ago

Burkina Faso Expels UN Resident Coordinator Over Report on Child Rights

Authors

4

1 year ago

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Islamic State

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.28%chance

9653736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18814

1115

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79.71%chance

399241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1982

504

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

383403

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

29

21

14

13

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

232398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3034

330

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191671

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Balkanization/long civil war

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

35

28

26

4

3

2

2

1

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

26756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?

Jun 22, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5548

OptionProbability

>3 months

>6 months

>1 year

>2 years

>5 years

77

56

45

34

19

Will donald trump strike nigeria again

Dec 27, 6:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.73%chance

14401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?

Mar 23, 1:53 AMJan 1, 2:53 AM

12%chance

13352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will Iran strike US military base at least once in August?

Jul 30, 12:19 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

87.25%chance

10220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

38

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

11156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Is Hamza Bin Laden (Osama’s Son) Still Alive? 💣💥🧨✈️

May 14, 2:04 PMMay 15, 1:55 PM

80.47%chance

4146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

49

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