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Top stories

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

US Foreign Policy

US Raid in Idlib Kills Senior ISIS Leadership Contender

Authors

29

1 year ago

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

Authors

3

1 year ago

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Berlin Court Gives Teen Suspended Sentence in Taylor Swift Vienna Bomb Plot

Authors

5

1 year ago

Burkina Faso Expels UN Resident Coordinator Over Report on Child Rights

Authors

4

1 year ago

Iraq Begins Excavation of Khasfa Mass Grave Near Mosul Holding 3,000-15,000 IS Victims Including Yazidis

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Islamic State

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

9758226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23187

881

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22156938

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

81

8

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

80.53%chance

399304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2034

492

Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?

Mar 17, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4%chance

214236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

393903

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

29

16

11

10

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

242503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3086

324

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.13%chance

291546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

38

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

77.84%chance

341266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

28869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

48.17%chance

16737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

378

315

How many UN members will recognize Somaliland at the end of 2026?

Dec 30, 1:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8472

OptionProbability

0–1

2

3

4 +

57

30

7

6

Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?

Mar 23, 1:53 AMJan 1, 2:53 AM

12%chance

13352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Latest stories