OptionProbability
US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted
Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.
One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days
Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly
A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides
High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.
100
71
38
33
31
21
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1100
977
448
22
139
72
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