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Prediction markets for IUCN
Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?
Apr 25, 11:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
243997
OptionProbability
95
90
86
85
80
77
77
72
69
69
67
61
58
58
57
57
57
57
57
57
57
47
31
10
Will the number of species known to be extinct since 1500 (IUCN EX) reach 950 by 2030?
Mar 18, 4:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
96.92%chance
8829
OptionVotes
699
23
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Next Red List Assessment?
Dec 5, 2:41 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM
4562
OptionProbability
49
10
10
9
5
4
4
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
Will the new 4 giraffe species taxonomy be accepted by the IUCN next time giraffes are reassessed ?
Dec 10, 3:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
88%chance
5238
OptionVotes
243
31
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Tiger (Panthera tigris) in Its Next Red List Assessment?
Jan 14, 12:10 PMDec 15, 10:59 PM
6215
OptionProbability
58
18
14
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will the IUCN reasses the javan tiger from “ Extinct” to “Critically endangered” when tigers are next reassesed?
Mar 25, 12:16 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM
37.42%chance
3193
OptionVotes
179
110
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?
Dec 6, 11:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
3140
OptionProbability
29
24
14
7
6
6
5
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2100?
Dec 6, 11:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
2103
OptionProbability
33
9
9
9
8
7
6
5
5
4
2
1
1
1
Will the Kabomani tapir be recognized by the IUCN as a seperate species by 2050?
Jan 15, 7:12 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM
37.57%chance
230
OptionVotes
110
75
Will the japanese tanuki be recognized as a seperate species from the mainland racoon dog by the IUCN by 2040?
Jan 15, 8:11 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM
52.15%chance
428
OptionVotes
120
100
Will the atlantic horseshoe crabs US and Yucatan pops,. Be split in seperate species by the IUCN when next reassessed
Dec 10, 4:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.81%chance
425
OptionVotes
115
105
Will the 6 reindeer/caribou species model be accepted by the IUCN next time they are reassessed
Dec 10, 3:57 AMMar 17, 3:59 AM
58.12%chance
213
OptionVotes
103
79
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