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Prediction markets for IUCN
Will the number of species known to be extinct since 1500 (IUCN EX) reach 950 by 2030?
Mar 18, 4:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
96.92%chance
8829
OptionVotes
699
23
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Tiger (Panthera tigris) in Its Next Red List Assessment?
Jan 14, 12:10 PMDec 15, 10:59 PM
6215
OptionProbability
58
18
14
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will the IUCN reasses the javan tiger from “ Extinct” to “Critically endangered” when tigers are next reassesed?
Mar 25, 12:16 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM
37.42%chance
3193
OptionVotes
179
110
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Next Red List Assessment?
Dec 5, 2:41 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM
3187
OptionProbability
46
9
9
8
6
6
4
4
4
1
1
1
1
1
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Baiji (Lipotes Vexillifer) in Its Next Red List Assessment?
Dec 11, 4:37 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM
3141
OptionProbability
76
7
5
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?
Dec 6, 11:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
3140
OptionProbability
29
24
14
7
6
6
5
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2100?
Dec 6, 11:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
2103
OptionProbability
33
9
9
9
8
7
6
5
5
4
2
1
1
1
Will the IUCN split the Orca into multiple species when next reassesed
May 4, 10:48 PMMay 6, 3:59 AM
74.08%chance
290
OptionVotes
169
59
Will the sacred crocodile be listed as a separate species from the nile croc by the IUCN at the next nile croc asseesmen
Dec 10, 4:53 PMDec 17, 4:59 AM
81.32%chance
283
OptionVotes
146
34
Will the Kabomani tapir be recognized by the IUCN as a seperate species by 2050?
Jan 15, 7:12 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM
37.57%chance
230
OptionVotes
110
75
Will the new 4 giraffe species taxonomy be accepted by the IUCN next time giraffes are reassessed ?
Dec 10, 3:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
55.44%chance
325
OptionVotes
103
78
Will the 6 reindeer/caribou species model be accepted by the IUCN next time they are reassessed
Dec 10, 3:57 AMMar 17, 3:59 AM
58.12%chance
213
OptionVotes
103
79
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