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Prediction markets for Jacobs

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

Will James Koppel, Barton Rhodes, yoyo,Amit Deshwar, Rochelle shen, Geffen avraham, sigfig, Jacob Cole LAN party b4 2030

Sep 21, 4:41 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

10%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Jacob rintamaki get a girlfriend by eoy2025

Sep 18, 6:52 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

26.86%chance

165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

Will Jacob Cole get a girlfriend by EOY2025?

Feb 8, 10:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.41%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

Will Jose Luis Ricon or Jacob Rintamaki come to OpenSauce 2026?

Jul 22, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will Jacob Steinhardt play Starcraft 2 and place as Gold League or higher by 2030?

Apr 29, 2:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will Anjan Katta/Daylight Computing OR gwern OR Jacob Cole be at Hidden States 2025 conference?

Dec 20, 8:07 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

If jacob cole were a character in LEGO RACERS, would he be BASIL THE BAT LORD?

Aug 1, 2:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Is the Cheegar constant for Kenneth Shinozuka's social network lower than that of Jacob Cole's social network?

Jul 24, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Jacob Rintamaki become a Thiel Fellow?

Jul 27, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Jacob Rintamaki have raised more money than Andrew Gao by EOY 2025?

Jun 30, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Jacob rintamaki raise more than 5 million by EOY 2025

Jun 27, 8:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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