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    What is worse than committing a financial crime?

    May 15, 5:46 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM
    360294372

    OptionProbability

    Arson

    Murder

    Genocide

    2008 bank bailouts

    two financial crimes

    Sexual assault

    Rape

    Election fraud

    financial crimes veiled as altruism

    ballot harvesting

    Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power

    Racism against Asian people

    Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off

    Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you

    Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight

    financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent

    offering drugs to a minor

    stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic

    Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders

    Sacrificing a child to R'hllor

    Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)

    Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)

    Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave

    Lobbying congress to ban your competitors

    buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you

    Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes

    Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars

    Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)

    Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played

    Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner

    Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft

    Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants

    Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors

    Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.

    marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them

    Giving away free samples of meth at a school

    Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.

    Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime

    Committing war crime.

    Intensive pig farming

    Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company

    Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups

    Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)

    Firebombing a major city

    Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.

    Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power

    Farming octopuses for food

    Whatever is going on at Boeing

    Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.

    Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths

    Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find

    Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

    Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent

    Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.

    Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent

    Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture

    Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse

    Octopi farming us for food

    Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.

    Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time

    Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"

    Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians

    Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways

    Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap

    Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)

    Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information

    Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter

    Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food

    Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food

    Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food

    Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent

    Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking

    Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers

    Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed

    Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses

    Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life

    Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)

    creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms

    Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku

    forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime

    Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.

    Octopus sex trafficking.

    Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.

    Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.

    Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”

    Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States

    Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court

    Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat

    Selling pies made out of orphan meat.

    Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.

    Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.

    Selling orphans fed only pie meat

    Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos

    Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms

    Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.

    Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.

    Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

    Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat

    Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn

    Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime

    Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.

    Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws

    Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect

    Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack

    Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.

    Stealing a SpaceX Starship

    Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.

    Carjacking an old lady

    Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so

    Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses

    Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse

    Stealing the Declaration of Independence

    Operating a child beauty pageant

    Andrew Tate

    Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time

    Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger

    Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them

    A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains

    Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution

    Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.

    The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.

    Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.

    Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.

    Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas

    Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land

    Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries

    Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries

    Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries

    Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death

    Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths

    Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person

    Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.

    Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.

    Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.

    Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself

    Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself

    Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries

    Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.

    Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.

    A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.

    Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.

    As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.

    Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC

    Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.

    Cannibalism in the current British Navy.

    Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument

    One hundred moving violations

    Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons

    Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain

    Touching minors/ being a pedophile

    Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts

    Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war

    Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.

    Stealing Nicholas Cage

    Gender "reparative therapy" of minors

    Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract

    Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime

    Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)

    Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them

    The genocide in Gaza

    Russia's genocide in Ukraine

    Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes

    Slavery

    Grooming kids

    Being the leader of a crime syndicate

    9/11

    Stranding two astronauts in space

    Disturbing the space-time continuum

    Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC

    Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck

    Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election

    Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk

    Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes

    Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK

    A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old

    Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so

    Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts

    De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.

    Sexual harassment

    Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)

    Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all

    Killing the United Healthcare CEO

    Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef

    Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war

    Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces

    Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef

    Sheltering enemies of the state

    Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter

    Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small

    Weaponizing autism

    Having a podcast

    Yelling racial slurs in public

    Jaywalking

    Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.

    Cheating on spouse

    Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)

    Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport

    Income taxes

    Copyright infringement

    Romeo and Juliet relationships

    Replying all to an email when you should've just replied

    Welfare fraud

    Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs

    Grave robbery

    Saying the N-word every day as a white person

    Discrimination based on race

    Discrimination based on sexual orientation

    Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor

    Having sex in public while high on fentanyl

    Racism against black people

    Racism against white people

    Sleep Token (Band)

    not seeding your torrents

    Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event

    Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies

    Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy

    Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).

    Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.

    Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich

    Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work

    hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation

    opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day

    twincest

    drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors

    Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions

    working as a prostitute

    hiring a prostitute

    hiring a prostitute, long term

    Inventing Monero

    Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks

    Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto

    Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert

    The most offensive Halloween costume ever

    frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past

    Doing blackface

    Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes

    Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued

    the Asiana flight 214 prank

    Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate

    Cloning yourself

    Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

    making mifeprestone available OTC

    making adderall available OTC

    Killing yourself

    Cloning someone else

    Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set

    Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips

    Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up

    Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.

    Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market

    Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself

    Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.

    Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting

    Calling octopuses "octopi"

    Going excessively meta on an object-level topic

    Illegally registering octopuses to vote

    Registering illegals to vote for octopuses

    Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime

    The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes

    "James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

    Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime

    Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it

    Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.

    Conducting gain-of-function research

    Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade

    Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through

    Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content

    Adding an option to a market right before it closes

    Writing a "goto" statement when programming

    Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods

    Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"

    Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.

    Selling dope disguised as a nun.

    Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life

    Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually

    Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies

    Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024

    Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.

    Interrupting cows.

    No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm

    Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime

    No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm

    One moving violation.

    Purchasing one whole chicken

    Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

    Cattle rustling

    Horse thievery

    Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime

    Sumptuary law violations

    Homeopathy

    Price Gouging

    Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free

    Failing to commit a financial crime

    Stealing a car

    Stealing from Elon Musk

    Committing a financial crime against X (company)

    Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.

    Carjacking Elon Musk

    An old lady carjacking Elon Musk

    Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn

    Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them

    Carjacking a dumb octopus

    A financial crime committed by an old lady

    Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk

    stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit

    Raping an AI avatar in VR

    Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.

    Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds

    Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower

    Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove

    Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse

    Bad bagels

    Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment

    Still getting notifications for this market

    Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.

    Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.

    scaring the shit out of a magpie

    Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe

    Committing sewerslide

    Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.

    Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person

    Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning

    Arby’s

    Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.

    Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.

    Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

    Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

    Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse

    Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists

    Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument

    Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away

    Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards

    Founding Christianity

    You, the reader

    One hundred counts of littering

    Purchasing 500 pounds of beef

    Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless

    BTE Ban evading

    Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef

    Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.

    Transing children

    Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity

    Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?

    Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period

    Messing up an 'I give you my heart' gesture and doing a Nazi salute instead

    100

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    Who orchestrated JFK's assassination?

    Jul 3, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    238108503

    OptionProbability

    Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

    CIA

    Other US government agency or official

    Other

    Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

    Mafia

    Cuban government

    KGB / Soviets

    LBJ

    US military

    FBI

    Other US leftwing group

    Other US rightwing group

    US company

    Foreign company

    Mossad / Israeli government

    Other foreign government

    Aliens / Illuminati / lizard people

    74

    18

    2

    2

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

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    OptionProbability

    There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

    Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

    One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

    At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

    High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

    Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

    There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

    Building GAI is impossible because human minds are special somehow.

    30

    24

    21

    9

    6

    5

    4

    2

    Greatest Mathematician of all time

    Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM
    18427699

    OptionProbability

    Gauss

    Archimedes

    Euler

    Other

    Euclid (of Geometry)

    Erdos (on amphetamines)

    Von Neumann

    Alexander Grothendieck

    Newton

    Kurt Gödel

    Augustin-Louis Cauchy

    Pythagoras

    Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

    Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

    Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

    Ramanujan

    Poincare

    Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

    Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

    Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

    Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

    sixtynine, you filthy casuals

    David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

    The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

    Ludwig Wittgenstein

    John Conway (group theory, among others)

    the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

    Descartes

    Leibniz

    Bourbaki

    Laplace

    @Mira

    Georg Cantor

    Frank Ramsey

    Fermat

    Emmy Noether

    Ada Lovelace

    .

    p

    Terry Tao

    David Hilbert

    DottedCalculator

    GPT8

    Riemann

    Claude Shannon

    God

    Alan Turing

    Grigori Perelman

    Olga Ladyzhenskaya

    Weyl, Weyl

    John Gabriel

    Michael Atiyah

    47

    20

    16

    4

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Oracle

    Meta

    Amazon

    Microsoft

    X

    Steve Mnuchin/Liberty Strategic Capital

    Susquehanna International Group

    General Atlantic

    Bobby Kotick

    Pershing Square Capital / Bill Ackman

    Alphabet

    Walmart

    Apple

    Snap

    Netflix

    Sequoia Capital

    Pinterest

    Ebay

    Spotify

    Universal music group

    Reddit

    Berkshire Hathaway

    Nvidia

    Kanye West or organisations / investors affiliated with Kanye West

    Verizon

    Salesforce

    Disney

    Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc.

    Kevin O’Leary and associated investors

    [RESOLVES NO [DUPLICATE]]

    Virgin Group

    [RESOLVES NO: https://manifold.markets/CalebW/which-company-will-buy-tiktok-resol#tahulw9u8j] - A new US publicly trade entity created to aquire it

    IBM

    AT&T

    OpenAI

    37

    13

    8

    8

    5

    5

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Group Stage

    Round of 16

    Quarter-Finals

    Semi-Finals

    Final

    Winner

    40

    31

    21

    5

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)

    TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government

    Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made

    The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict

    The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season

    The US has spies working in the North Korean government

    "The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started

    The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects

    The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests

    The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries

    John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated

    Mattress Firm is a money laundering front

    The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning

    Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence

    The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China

    Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine

    The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light

    The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup

    COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome

    Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins

    In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different

    Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double

    COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term

    Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened

    There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth

    Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist

    Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.

    A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland

    81

    64

    59

    57

    56

    52

    52

    51

    50

    45

    37

    35

    34

    34

    24

    18

    14

    12

    9

    9

    8

    7

    5

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Bitcoin (BTC)

    Gold

    XRP

    Government owned real estate

    Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

    Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

    TikTok

    Tesla (TSLA)

    Palantir (PLTR)

    NVIDIA (NVDA)

    U.S. Treasury Bonds

    Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)

    Ethereum (ETH)

    Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

    Walmart Inc. (WMT)

    Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

    Apple Inc. (AAPL)

    CrowdStrike (CRWD)

    C3.ai (AI)

    Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

    Dogecoin (DOGE)

    Blackstone Capital Partners X

    Solana (SOL)

    Trump Media & Technology Group (TRUMP)

    KKR North America Fund XIV

    $TRUMP coin

    An asteroid

    Alibaba (BABA)

    $MELANIA coin

    Any real estate on the Moon

    Any real estate on Mars

    91

    89

    74

    72

    70

    70

    68

    65

    64

    63

    63

    63

    63

    61

    60

    60

    59

    54

    50

    50

    50

    43

    41

    40

    40

    40

    40

    36

    32

    32

    32

    30

    OptionProbability

    I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

    I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

    Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

    Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

    Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

    Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

    Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

    Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

    Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

    Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

    Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

    Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

    Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

    Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

    Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

    Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

    Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

    Will we have 20+ this year?

    Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

    Will we meet in the library at least once?

    Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

    Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Expand his political influence and connections in general

    Remove regulations that affect his business interests

    Strategic business opportunities through policy influence

    Build a public profile as a government reformer

    Reduce government bureaucracy and spending

    Drive technological innovation in government operations

    Target a specific person or a group of just a few people he dislikes

    Promote his business interests with additional enforcement efforts rather than just reductions

    Personal entertainment and meme culture participation

    Support and promote Dogecoin cryptocurrency

    86

    78

    77

    70

    60

    50

    50

    50

    43

    8

    OptionProbability

    Alphabet (Google)

    TSMC

    NVIDIA

    Tesla

    Apple

    Microsoft

    Amazon

    Meta Platforms (Facebook)

    Tencent

    Broadcom

    Samsung Electronics

    Saudi Aramco

    ASML Holding

    Alibaba

    BYD Company

    Berkshire Hathaway

    Reliance Industries

    Exxon Mobil

    Mastercard

    JPMorgan Chase

    UnitedHealth Group

    Johnson & Johnson

    Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

    Visa

    Walmart

    55

    55

    55

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

    45

    40

    40

    40

    40

    40

    31

    31

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