LAB News
Top stories
Prediction markets for LAB
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.25%chance
183266085
OptionVotes
17639
7122
OptionProbability
35
32
14
7
5
5
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
6.15%chance
16150732
OptionVotes
10883
1997
Will my startup Retis Labs become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?
Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.41%chance
4350042
OptionVotes
20781
8355
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.55%chance
14617629
OptionVotes
10157
9791
OptionVotes
3759
339
In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?
Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
174409
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM
44.8%chance
302531
OptionVotes
1110
901
OptionProbability
27
25
24
7
5
3
3
2
2
2
1
Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?
Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
39.87%chance
331384
OptionVotes
2200
1771
OptionVotes
1059
813
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.64%chance
250
OptionVotes
1048
954