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Top stories

House Oversight Subpoenas Epstein Estate for Birthday Book, Client Records

House Oversight Subpoenas Epstein Estate for Birthday Book, Client Records

Authors

33

8 months ago

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Chalmers Backs Report Urging 20% Company Tax, Leaves Timing Unclear

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US Domestic Policy

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9 months ago

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US Domestic Policy

Trump Administration Ends VA Union Contracts for 400,000 Workers

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9 months ago

Prediction markets for Labor

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2318485

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

26

19

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Jan 5, 7:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.2%chance

8112563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3364

20

Will >50% of human physical labor be replaced by robots before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.59%chance

535765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

952

951

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

1036

Will Twitter lose more than a billion dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?

Mar 9, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

182331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2543

778

Will Twitter lose more than 100 million dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?

Mar 9, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.82%chance

362019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

755

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

69.62%chance

81640

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

661

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

817

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will there be a 'Capital Day' on May 1st in the future as 'Labor Day' will get obsolete?

May 1, 10:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

11.14%chance

15463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

917

When will a humanoid robot first be used as farm labor?

Nov 11, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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