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Top stories

House Oversight Subpoenas Epstein Estate for Birthday Book, Client Records

House Oversight Subpoenas Epstein Estate for Birthday Book, Client Records

Authors

33

3 months ago

Chalmers Backs Report Urging 20% Company Tax, Leaves Timing Unclear

Chalmers Backs Report Urging 20% Company Tax, Leaves Timing Unclear

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12

3 months ago

U.S. Lawmakers Mark 62nd Anniversary of March on Washington

US Domestic Policy

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24

3 months ago

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11

3 months ago

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4 months ago

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Authors

12

4 months ago

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4 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Trump Administration Ends VA Union Contracts for 400,000 Workers

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4 months ago

Prediction markets for Labor

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Jan 5, 7:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.27%chance

8012558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3341

21

Will >50% of human physical labor be replaced by robots before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21%chance

525250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

839

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

1036

Bureau of Labor Statistics public reports manipulated for political purposes by end of 2025

Feb 5, 2:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.09%chance

202965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

703

Will Twitter lose more than a billion dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?

Mar 9, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

182331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2543

778

Will Twitter lose more than 100 million dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?

Mar 9, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.82%chance

362019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

755

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

817

Will labor’s share of income decline in 2025?

Jun 3, 8:13 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

68.66%chance

151019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1491

685

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

71.73%chance

5709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1593

628

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

3650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will the US Civilian labor force participation rate in January 2026 be above that in January 2022?

Aug 8, 11:48 PMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

46.7%chance

13459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

511

When will a humanoid robot first be used as farm labor?

Nov 11, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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