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Prediction markets for LeT
OptionVotes
2565
842
Amazon lets me rent a server located in earth orbit by mid 2029
May 12, 7:03 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
9.95%chance
351230
OptionVotes
1793
847
Will the United Kingdom attempt to rejoin the EU and Greece demand the Elgin Marbles back to let them? [2033]
Jul 7, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.15%chance
241220
OptionVotes
1285
830
Will Comma.ai let me read a book while driving before Tesla does?
May 17, 8:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.49%chance
281061
OptionVotes
1407
907
OptionVotes
1053
738
I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out? [Resolves to superintelligence]
Nov 27, 11:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
34.83%chance
12502
OptionVotes
1039
957
OptionVotes
1208
949
Will "Don't Let LLMs Write For You" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 11, 4:32 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10%chance
4401
OptionVotes
1389
948
Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?
Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.55%chance
15385
OptionVotes
1104
965
Will "Let goodness conquer all that it can defend" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 17, 3:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.37%chance
5226
OptionVotes
1130
980
Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 18, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Letting Claude do Autonomous Research to Impr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 13, 4:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.79%chance
19
OptionVotes
1009
946


