LLA News

Kicillof Accuses 24 Buenos Aires Police Officers of Conspiracy Linked to Milei Candidate as Bullrich Responds and U.S. Secretary Noem Visits

8 days ago

Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Aug 18, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.74%chance

3464174

OptionVotes

YES

14016

7134

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

10.71%chance

226225

OptionVotes

YES

2888

346

What will be true of Llama 4? [Add answers]

Feb 28, 6:50 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

162953

OptionProbability

It will have a variant with over 400 billion parameters (does not need to release immediately)

It will have a variant with over 1 trillion parameters (does not need to release immediately)

Some version of it will score better on GPQA than o1-preview (73% pass@1)

It will be able to output audio

Some version of it will score better on SWE-Bench Verified than Claude 3.5 Sonnet (October version)

It will be able to output images

Gets the high score on Humanity's Last Exam

Manifold will think any variant is the best model released up to that point in a poll

Gets the high score on FrontierMath

Reaches Highest Arena Score on Chatbot Arena

Non-mini Llama 4 released by April 4, 2025

Meta share price reaches ATH within 24 hours of the first release of a non-mini Llama 4

100

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

26.86%chance

342895

OptionVotes

YES

1650

606

Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight?

Apr 23, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.11%chance

272145

OptionVotes

YES

1123

425

Will Llama-3 (or next open Meta model) be obviously good in its first-order effects on the world?

Oct 23, 12:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

181098

OptionVotes

YES

1551

843

In 2030, a majority of experts will think open sourcing Llama 3.1 405 was a dangerous move in hindsight.

Aug 18, 8:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6%chance

16439

OptionVotes

YES

396

Will lucky llama speak before the end of 2025?

Feb 11, 1:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.97%chance

3242

OptionVotes

YES

238

Was Llama 4 sabotaged?

May 18, 8:06 PMJan 1, 9:05 PM

12.89%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

260

How many active parameters will the largest Llama 3 have?

Jan 22, 2:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.53%chance

6102

OptionVotes

YES

131

Will Meta's Llama family of models reach 2 billion downloads by September 30, 2025?

May 2, 4:14 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

75%chance

497

OptionVotes

YES

173

Will entropy-based sampling improve Llama3.1 on reasoning benchmarks in 2025?

Dec 13, 12:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.01%chance

596

OptionVotes

YES

267

157

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Kicillof Accuses 24 Buenos Aires Police Officers of Conspiracy Linked to Milei Candidate as Bullrich Responds and U.S. Secretary Noem Visits
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Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

What will be true of Llama 4? [Add answers]

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight?

Will Llama-3 (or next open Meta model) be obviously good in its first-order effects on the world?

In 2030, a majority of experts will think open sourcing Llama 3.1 405 was a dangerous move in hindsight.

Will lucky llama speak before the end of 2025?

Was Llama 4 sabotaged?

How many active parameters will the largest Llama 3 have?

Will Meta's Llama family of models reach 2 billion downloads by September 30, 2025?

Will entropy-based sampling improve Llama3.1 on reasoning benchmarks in 2025?

Latest stories

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