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Top stories

Leaked Israeli Data Shows 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians

Leaked Israeli Data Shows 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians

Authors

29

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Local Call

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5174334

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

56

16

0

0

0

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

14.68%chance

8836202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10857

1831

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Will X (Twitter) be banned in Australia in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.72%chance

233396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3727

269

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

7.59%chance

62670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3508

289

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.13%chance

262011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

967

923

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

691

At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?

Feb 16, 1:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.91%chance

11411

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1149

928

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.76%chance

12342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

May 1, 8:34 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

32.85%chance

8196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

68

Will any municipality in Northern Italy move to an autonomous region by 2030?

Aug 3, 4:34 PMDec 4, 4:59 AM

62.17%chance

691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

117

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Latest stories

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Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
Leaked Israeli Data Shows 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians
Authors
29
10 months ago

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