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Top stories

Leaked Israeli Data Shows 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians

Leaked Israeli Data Shows 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians

Authors

29

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Local Call

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

16

0

0

0

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

Will X (Twitter) be banned in Australia in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.59%chance

223295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3491

287

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.93%chance

262009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

965

961

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Senate race in Maine?

Nov 26, 3:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.4%chance

331203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

691

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6755

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

8

3

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

672

At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?

Feb 16, 1:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.91%chance

11411

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1149

928

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.39%chance

7228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

May 1, 8:34 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

32.85%chance

8196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

68

Will any municipality in Northern Italy move to an autonomous region by 2030?

Aug 3, 4:34 PMDec 4, 4:59 AM

62.17%chance

691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

117

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
Leaked Israeli Data Shows 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians
Authors
29
7 months ago

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