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Prediction markets for Lowe

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79%chance

288173419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3090

899

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, Low Resolution

May 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

181104719

Will Rupert Lowe be a Reform UK MP on 1st September 2025?

Mar 7, 6:12 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

1.03%chance

818658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9805

102

Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?

May 27, 3:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44%chance

202658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2025? (add answers)

Jan 3, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

212385

OptionProbability

Sailing

Skiing

Using Food Delivery Apps

Mountains

Using generative AI

Going to Horse Races

Caring about whether a certain behavior is high class or low class

Environmental activists

Brennan Lee Mulligan

Appearing on the JRE podcast

Hunting

Captcha

Snowboarding

Beaches

Having more than 5 kids

Dubai

Christmas lights up after the New Year

Starbucks

95

92

75

72

69

69

62

55

51

50

50

50

42

31

29

23

19

18

Has Elon Musk’s Tesla scrapped plans to build Model 2 (low cost ~$25k car) as Reuters claims?

Apr 5, 5:44 PMJan 13, 12:59 PM

47.86%chance

411326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

897

Will the overall claim that low flow showers cause more net water use hold up thru mid 2026?

Mar 9, 12:45 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

32825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

960

Will there be a "low scorigami" before 2030?

Sep 22, 9:39 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

42.77%chance

21527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

936

Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?

Feb 10, 3:21 AMJan 20, 4:59 AM

52.29%chance

18400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

96

“Low skill immigration decreases low skill wages” OR “increasing minimum wage decreases employment”

Jul 4, 12:26 PMJul 12, 6:59 AM

84.91%chance

2140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

42

Low hanging fruit in dataviz due to causality?

Aug 12, 9:20 PMDec 31, 10:04 PM

40.58%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

If Alex Zhu were to get qEEG, would his z-score for Fz low-beta power be higher than his z-score for Fz theta power?

Sep 24, 7:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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