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Prediction markets for Luminate
Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?
Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM
5.45%chance
3619769
OptionVotes
11027
9758
Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?
Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.21%chance
879123
OptionVotes
1637
1199
Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?
Apr 10, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
2.3%chance
357751
OptionVotes
6150
636
OptionVotes
1525
288
Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?
Apr 14, 8:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.82%chance
303981
OptionVotes
2893
596
Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?
Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
28.91%chance
363686
OptionVotes
1615
565
Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?
Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.13%chance
201986
OptionVotes
1056
652
Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?
Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.89%chance
251409
OptionVotes
1118
775
Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?
Oct 2, 2:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
71.44%chance
8690
OptionVotes
1582
632
If i take the Lumina toothpaste, will I regret it 1 year later?
Jun 10, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15.66%chance
10426
OptionVotes
232
43
Will Lumina ship their oral probiotic to an EU retail customer before 2028?
Sep 6, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3128
OptionProbability
76
50
50
50
21
OptionVotes
1015
986