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Lutnick News

    Prediction markets for Lutnick

    Who will be on the 2025 Time Person of the Year shortlist?

    Jun 25, 7:44 PMDec 12, 11:59 PM
    200121219

    OptionProbability

    Pope Leo XIV

    Donald Trump

    Zohran Mamdani

    Jensen Huang

    Artificial Intelligence (AI)

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Ahmed Al-Sharaa

    Elon Musk

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Charlie Kirk

    Sam Altman

    Jerome Powell

    Nicolas Maduro

    Mark Carney

    Xi Jinping

    Nayib Bukele

    Sanae Takaichi

    Lee Jae Myung

    Sundar Pichai

    Gisèle Pelicot

    Vladimir Putin

    Demis Hassabis

    Narendra Modi

    Marco Rubio

    Kilmar Abrego Garcia

    J.D. Vance

    Kendrick Lamar

    Keir Starmer

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Sushila Karki

    Mohammed bin Salman

    Jimmy Kimmel

    Peter Thiel

    Taylor Swift

    Brendan Foody

    Surya Midha

    Satya Nadella

    Dario Amodei

    Nick Fuentes

    Larry Page

    Antonio Guterres

    Pam Bondi

    Kim Jong Un

    Steve Witkoff

    Ms. Rachel

    Scott Bessent

    Bad Bunny

    Imran Khan

    Jane Goodall

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Gavin Newsom

    Stephen Miller

    Pete Hegseth

    Tim Cook

    Jeff Bezos

    Emmanuel Macron

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    Jimmy Donaldson

    Adarsh Hiremath

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Mike Johnson

    Jeffrey Epstein

    Kash Patel

    Sydney Sweeney

    Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Dana White

    Howard Lutnick

    Maverick Trevillian

    Kamala Harris

    Stephen Colbert

    Lei Jun (CEO Xiaomi)

    Nasry Asfura

    Mahmoud Khalil

    Larry Ellison

    Greta Thunberg

    Javier Milei

    Tucker Carlson

    David Ellison

    Bubba

    91

    80

    70

    61

    56

    41

    33

    32

    25

    22

    17

    16

    14

    12

    12

    11

    10

    10

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    OptionProbability

    Kanye West

    Steve Bannon

    Calvin Robinson

    Eduardo Verástegui

    Andrew Tate

    Calin Georgescu

    Harry Redknapp

    David Walliams (Comedian)

    George Simion

    Tommy Robinson

    Enrique Tarrio

    @Anon99

    Alex Jones

    Another religious figure in addition to Calvin Robinson

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Julius Malema

    Matteo Salvini

    Elon Musk (again)

    Tristan Tate

    Paul Golding

    Tucker Carlson

    Pete Hegseth

    Mel Gibson

    Jacob Chansley

    Nigel Farage

    Markus Persson (Notch)

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Michael Waltz

    Donald Trump

    Any Democratic Senator, Governor, or former Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee

    Lars von Trier

    Ching Hai

    Robert Fico

    Nicolás Maduro

    Logan Paul

    Nota Baloyi

    Narendra Modi

    Kim Yo Jong

    Glenn Greenwald

    Conor McGregor

    Steve Witkoff

    Howard Lutnick

    Cory Booker

    Viktor Orban

    Dave Chappelle

    Erdoğan

    Jordan Bardella

    Pam Bondi

    JD Vance

    Ben Shapiro

    Palmer Luckey

    Larry Ellison

    Caitlyn Jenner

    Alex Karp

    Joe Exotic

    Jake Paul

    Martin Shkreli

    Sarah Palin

    Lex Fridman

    Guillaume Verdon

    Piers Morgan

    Aravind Srinivas

    Peter Pellegrini

    Alice Weidel

    Marine Le Pen

    Mohammed bin Salman

    Candace Owens

    Owen Jones

    David Holz

    Giuseppe Conte

    Valery Gerasimov

    Jean-Luc Mélenchon

    Aleksandar Vučić

    Nayib Bukele

    Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia

    Joe Rogan

    Joel Kaplan

    Javier Milei

    Emily Chang

    Claire Boucher (Grimes)

    Liv Boeree

    Sam Bankman Fried

    Sergey Lavrov

    Marion Maréchal

    Andrew Callaghan

    Liang Wenfeng

    Mario Nawfal

    Kim Dotcom

    Felix Kjellberg

    Alexander Lukashenko

    Marco Rubio

    Ghislaine Maxwell

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Ivanka Trump

    Stephen Miller

    Jiankui He

    George Hotz

    Melania Trump

    Jared Kushner

    Trey Parker

    Brett Kavanaugh

    Robert Downey Jr.

    John Cena

    Peter Thiel

    Usha Vance

    Liz Truss

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Geert Wilders

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Matt Stone

    Rudy Giuliani

    Vladimir Solovyov

    Ramzan Kadyrov

    Amichai Chikli

    Dwayne Johnson

    J.K.Rowling

    Vladimir Putin

    Jeff Bezos

    Xi Jinping

    Tim Walz

    Itamar Ben-Gvir

    joe biden

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Michelle Obama

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    22

    21

    16

    16

    15

    15

    14

    14

    14

    13

    13

    13

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    Who of Donald Trump's cabinet will be removed first?

    Feb 17, 8:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
    12917156

    OptionProbability

    Pete Hegseth

    Pam Bondi

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Kristi Noem

    Howard Lutnick

    No One

    Doug Burgum

    Scott Bessent

    Marco Rubio

    Brooke Rollins

    Sean Duffy

    Scott Turner

    Chris Wright

    Doug Collins

    Susie Wiles

    Lee Zeldin

    Russell Vought

    John Ratcliffe

    Kelly Loeffler

    Linda McMahon

    Jamieson Greer

    Other

    40

    11

    9

    8

    5

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Who will leave (or resign from) Trump's cabinet first?

    Jan 27, 5:09 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
    8015545

    OptionProbability

    Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

    Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

    Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

    RFK Jr. (Secretary of HHS)

    Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

    Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

    Russel Vought (OMB director)

    Scott Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury)

    Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

    Doug Burgum (Secretary of the Interior)

    Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

    Scott Turner (HUD Secretary)

    Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

    Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

    Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

    Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

    Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

    Lee Zeldin (EPA administrator)

    John Ratcliffe (Director of the CIA)

    Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

    Mike Waltz (or confirmed UN Ambassador)

    Jamieson Greer (US Trade Representative)

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    41

    11

    9

    8

    6

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

    Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

    Attorney General: Pam Bondi

    Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

    Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

    Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

    Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

    Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

    Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

    Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

    Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

    Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

    Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

    Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

    Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

    Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

    United States Trade Representative: James Greer

    Ambassador to the United Nations:

    Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

    Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

    Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

    Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

    Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

    President: Donald Trump

    Vice President: JD Vance

    83

    59

    50

    48

    45

    40

    39

    38

    33

    33

    32

    31

    29

    29

    28

    27

    27

    27

    27

    22

    22

    22

    22

    22

    10

    8

    Who will leave the Trump Administration in 2025?

    Jul 10, 12:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    253321

    OptionProbability

    Ross Worthington

    David Warrington

    Dorothy Shea

    James Blair

    Taylor Budowich

    Nicholas F. Luna

    Jacob Reses

    Joshua Fisher

    Vince Haley

    Will Scharf

    Jamieson Greer

    Susie Wiles

    Russell Vought

    Dan Scavino

    Scott Bessent

    Pete Hegseth

    Kevin Hassett

    Peter Navarro

    Steven Cheung

    Sean Duffy

    Chris Wright

    Doug Collins

    Lee Zeldin

    Kelly Loeffler

    Stephen Miller

    Karoline Leavitt

    Brooke Rollins

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Sergio Gor

    Steve Witkoff

    Doug Burgum

    Howard Lutnick

    Lori Chavez‑DeRemer

    Scott Turner

    John Ratcliffe

    Pam Bondi

    Marco Rubio

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Kristi Noem

    William "Beau" Harrison

    Donald J. Trump

    J.D. Vance

    17

    16

    15

    15

    15

    15

    15

    15

    15

    15

    11

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    Who will be the first Cabinet member to leave in 2025?

    Apr 22, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    142620

    OptionProbability

    Pete Hegseth

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Scott Bessent

    R. F. Kennedy Jr.

    Kristi Noem

    Doug Burgum

    Howard Lutnick

    Marco Rubio

    Brooke Rollins

    Lee Zeldin

    Scott Turner

    Sean Duffy

    Doug Collins

    Russel Vought

    Chris Wright

    17

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Who will be the first Cabinet member to leave in 2025?

    Mar 14, 11:35 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM
    341871

    OptionProbability

    None of these

    Pete Hegseth

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Scott Bessent

    Marco Rubio

    Howard Lutnick

    R. F. Kennedy Jr.

    Sean Duffy

    Lee Zeldin

    Doug Burgum

    Brooke Rollins

    Scott Turner

    Doug Collins

    Kristi Noem

    Russel Vought

    Chris Wright

    69

    16

    4

    3

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Howard Lutnick

    Neither (Both complete their terms)

    Scott Bessent

    Both (Announced together)

    48

    24

    18

    10

    OptionProbability

    Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

    Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

    Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

    Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

    Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

    Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

    Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

    Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

    Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

    Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

    Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

    Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

    John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

    Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

    Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

    Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

    Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

    Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

    John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

    Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

    92

    90

    89

    88

    87

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    83

    76

    76

    76

    66

    50

    30

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    338

    30

    Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin?

    Feb 6, 8:21 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM
    61.74%chance
    6115

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    130

    81

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