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Prediction markets for MAT
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
56.81%chance
178213505
OptionVotes
5993
3136
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.39%chance
86134411
OptionVotes
108928
17670
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
21.07%chance
150128231
OptionVotes
18325
7936
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM
15%chance
13758456
OptionVotes
2333
1409
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.14%chance
6115112
OptionVotes
9979
9757
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.81%chance
114493
OptionVotes
10081
9577
Will Mattel stock (MAT) be above 25 USD on October 1st 2025?
Feb 20, 8:58 AMOct 2, 6:59 AM
4%chance
6423
OptionVotes
490
20
OptionProbability
69
69
59
59
59
59
57
55
55
55
55
55
54
47
Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)
Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8247
OptionProbability
29
19
15
12
9
5
4
3
2
2
Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)
Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20%chance
1100
OptionVotes
200
50
OptionVotes
167
60
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17