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Top stories

President Ruto and Raila Lead UDA-ODM Meeting as MPs Face Extortion Claims; Anti-Graft Team Suspended, Mutai Impeachment Trial Set, Gachagua Returns

President Ruto and Raila Lead UDA-ODM Meeting as MPs Face Extortion Claims; Anti-Graft Team Suspended, Mutai Impeachment Trial Set, Gachagua Returns

Authors

4

1 year ago

Kenya High Court Suspends President Ruto’s Multi-Agency Anti-Corruption Team Amid Petition by Four Activists and MPs Demand Evidence

Kenya High Court Suspends President Ruto’s Multi-Agency Anti-Corruption Team Amid Petition by Four Activists and MPs Demand Evidence

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for MAT

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.56%chance

154223270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

58291

46413

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

16.49%chance

22091568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22645

4161

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

48.47%chance

20778153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2385

1284

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.62%chance

4114719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14127

7079

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.02%chance

136543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10444

9054

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

37.22%chance

152546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5051

3217

Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?

Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

15.25%chance

15844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Charles Duke

Harrison Schmitt

James A. Lovell Jr.

Fred W. Haise Jr.

Buzz Aldrin

David Scott

Other

Frank Borman

Thomas K. Mattingly II

Thomas Stafford

29

19

15

12

9

5

4

3

2

2

Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 16, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.91%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

987

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.29%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

did you or anyone in your household have The Mat as a kid?

Oct 6, 10:16 PM

260

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