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Prediction markets for MEA
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74%chance
293621193
OptionVotes
2825
2569
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM
69%chance
159139989
OptionVotes
1698
1437
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
48.71%chance
19782934
OptionVotes
8638
4393
Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025?
Mar 27, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40%chance
5517242
OptionVotes
1225
816
3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.
Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
79.49%chance
6116874
OptionVotes
1969
508
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?
May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
90.54%chance
383908
OptionVotes
7894
5344
Will at least one U.S. state declare a state of emergency due to measles before 2026?
Mar 11, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
22.75%chance
203147
OptionVotes
2262
1168
Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?
Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
57.41%chance
673036
OptionVotes
1458
1072
Will any country implement a tax on meat products due to environmental concerns by the end of 2025? (M$300 subsidy)
Jul 23, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
33.16%chance
552478
OptionVotes
1508
1165
Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?
Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
39.87%chance
331384
OptionVotes
2200
1771
Weiss/Taibbi/Schellenberger will offer a Mea Culpa on the twitter Files before End of 2025
Nov 25, 3:45 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
6.48%chance
3280
OptionVotes
380
26
Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
55%chance
11274
OptionVotes
242
126
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