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Medicare News

    Prediction markets for Medicare

    OptionProbability

    Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

    Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

    Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

    Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

    Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

    Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

    Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

    Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

    Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

    Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

    Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

    Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

    Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

    Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

    Fold a paper airplane

    Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

    Make correct Truchet tiles

    Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

    Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

    1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

    Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

    Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

    teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

    Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

    Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

    Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

    Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

    Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

    Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

    Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

    Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

    independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

    Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

    Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

    Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

    Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

    Kill everyone - Liron

    Faster than light travel

    voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

    100

    100

    92

    90

    87

    87

    85

    85

    84

    84

    73

    72

    71

    70

    68

    62

    59

    53

    47

    46

    45

    43

    40

    36

    33

    30

    21

    20

    17

    15

    9

    9

    9

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    OptionProbability

    "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

    "lower taxes"

    "defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

    "increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

    "open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

    "order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

    "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

    "ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

    "reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

    "REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

    "stop all COVID mandates"

    "keep men out of women’s sports"

    "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

    empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

    "deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

    "get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

    "cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

    "strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

    "uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

    "implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

    "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

    "build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

    "surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

    "adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

    "banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

    "banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

    "bigger paychecks"

    "a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

    "enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

    "choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

    "cut the number of school administrators"

    "stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

    declassify the 'Epstein files'

    "pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

    "more jobs for American workers"

    "deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

    "veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

    "increase fairness through price transparency"

    "passing a digital bill of rights"

    "get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

    "continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

    "create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

    "protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

    "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

    "firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

    "ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

    "end surprise medical billing"

    "ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

    "reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

    "reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

    "impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

    "a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

    "a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

    "implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

    "a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

    "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"

    100

    82

    74

    71

    71

    66

    63

    63

    63

    63

    58

    57

    56

    51

    50

    45

    45

    44

    44

    42

    42

    42

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    39

    37

    36

    36

    36

    35

    34

    33

    31

    31

    31

    30

    27

    27

    26

    26

    25

    24

    23

    19

    18

    18

    17

    16

    16

    13

    11

    7

    0

    Will the average US Medicare payments rate increase in 2027 be <0.2%

    Jan 27, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4.01%chance
    55907

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4891

    204

    Will the Trump administration enact Medicare For All

    Dec 5, 5:31 AMJan 12, 7:59 AM
    6.95%chance
    203147

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3659

    273

    OptionProbability

    Puberty blockers for minors with gender dysphoria

    Free speech and freedom of expression

    Hate Speech Laws

    Universal vote by mail

    Single payer health care or Medicare for All

    Mandatory menstrual leave (paid)

    Universal background checks for firearm sales

    Non-sectarian prayer in schools

    Lower capital gains tax

    Right-to-work laws

    Land Value Tax

    A physical wall at the southern border

    75

    57

    57

    54

    52

    50

    45

    40

    26

    24

    23

    13

    Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?

    Nov 24, 12:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    85.94%chance
    281427

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1611

    802

    OptionProbability

    Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26

    Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)

    Per-state insurance exchanges

    Nutrition labelling requirements

    Prescription drugs as essential services (must be covered by insurance)

    No deductibles/co-pay for vaccinations

    Medicaid expansion

    Bundled payments for Medicare

    Coverage for contraceptive methods

    Premium subsidies for households between 100-400% of federal poverty level using insurance exchanges

    Employer mandate for businesses with >50 employees

    States may require abortion care coverage

    65

    63

    50

    50

    47

    47

    47

    47

    46

    41

    41

    37

    Will the US create a universal Healthcare system by EOY 2030?

    Oct 20, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    25%chance
    6746

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1732

    577

    Will Medicare or Medicaid cover weight loss drugs by 2029?

    Aug 3, 6:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    95.38%chance
    9588

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    705

    53

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1395

    717

    OptionProbability

    Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

    Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

    Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

    Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

    Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

    55

    53

    51

    50

    28

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    147

    68

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