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Prediction markets for Medicare
What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Jul 20, 4:26 AMJul 20, 4:15 AM
31575479
OptionProbability
100
100
92
90
87
87
85
85
84
84
73
72
71
70
68
62
59
53
47
46
45
43
40
36
33
30
21
20
17
15
9
9
9
7
6
5
4
3
2
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
Jan 24, 11:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
968242
OptionProbability
100
82
74
71
71
66
63
63
63
63
58
57
56
51
50
45
45
44
44
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
39
39
37
36
36
36
35
34
33
31
31
31
30
27
27
26
26
25
24
23
19
18
18
17
16
16
13
11
7
0
Will the average US Medicare payments rate increase in 2027 be <0.2%
Jan 27, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.01%chance
55907
OptionVotes
4891
204
OptionVotes
3659
273
OptionProbability
75
57
57
54
52
50
45
40
26
24
23
13
Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?
Nov 24, 12:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
85.94%chance
281427
OptionVotes
1611
802
Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?
Jul 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5852
OptionProbability
65
63
50
50
47
47
47
47
46
41
41
37
Will the US create a universal Healthcare system by EOY 2030?
Oct 20, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25%chance
6746
OptionVotes
1732
577
Will Medicare or Medicaid cover weight loss drugs by 2029?
Aug 3, 6:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
95.38%chance
9588
OptionVotes
705
53
Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)
Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.95%chance
8485
OptionVotes
1395
717
Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?
Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5331
OptionProbability
55
53
51
50
28
Will the 2028 democratic nominee for president support Medicare for All?
Apr 23, 11:58 AMAug 1, 12:59 AM
68.48%chance
7138
OptionVotes
147
68
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