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Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]
Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.96%chance
275407
OptionVotes
4502
453
What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?
Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM
33.47%chance
2420
OptionVotes
2420
1704
By the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?
Nov 26, 5:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.09%chance
4177
OptionVotes
1154
867
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