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Top stories

Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy

Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, MK Stalin Lead 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in Bihar Alleging Vote Theft by BJP Amid Darbhanga Remarks Controversy

Authors

3

5 months ago

Prediction markets for ML

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

29.46%chance

3021098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

582

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

Jun 20, 6:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

328618

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

2026-01-01

Later than that/never

2025-01-01

86

86

78

75

14

0

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Mar 5, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

83.04%chance

411582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

977

Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?

Jun 25, 7:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

191318

OptionProbability

Other

Geoffrey Hinton

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Kaiming He

48

17

14

11

10

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

59.72%chance

31917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

822

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

Nov 7, 9:09 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

8334

OptionProbability

>4x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

34

20

18

15

12

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4201

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

Later than that/never

2026-01-01

2025-01-01

72

72

50

29

22

1

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Nov 7, 9:06 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

5135

OptionProbability

>8x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

4-8x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

29

24

18

11

11

8

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6103

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

46

35

11

7

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.59%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

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