OptionProbability
US citizen
Male
The shooter killed Charlie Kirk
White
The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders
Did it on purpose
Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account
The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya
The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien
Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?
Born in the United States
Lives (or has lived) in Utah
Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member
Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law
Native English speaker (L1)
Is a registered voter
20-27 years old
used a bolt action rifle
has at least one sibling
at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”
“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)
n/a
Skinny
Is named Tyler Robinson
wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing
Resided in the same state as the incident
ectomorph body type
had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk
disliked Charlie Kirk
Acted alone (no accomplices)
Turns themselves in to the police / FBI
He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.
Owns steam profile 76561198159427286
at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
has expressed positive sentiment towards furries
Had bullets with engraved messages on them
Hunter
Accident please N/A
has purchased furry-related media or items
Gamer
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender
Unemployed
iphone user
Motivated primarily by political ideology
is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman
Will plead guilty
Not a virgin
Is left wing
has a furaffinity account
Owns a car
Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area
legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk
Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology
Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs
Furry
actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.
Communicated with peers primarily through Discord
Owns physical furry paraphernalia
extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices
Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam
Strongly opposes zionism
Is sentenced to death
There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account
N/A (oops)
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry
Dies in prison
Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa
has used the word yiff in written communication
Conspired with an AI chatbot about this
Will kill again (including suicide)
Has ADHD
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university
6 ft tall
Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy
Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt
was prescribed psychiatric medication
has vore kink
Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)
Owned the firearm used
Went to furry events
cross-dresser
All questions in this market are resolved before 2026
Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire
JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy
Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy
Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)
White cis-hetero Christian man
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione
Participates in this market
student at any university
Owns a fursuit
Brony or a fan of My Little Pony
Radical Centrist/JREG fan
Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)
Wrote a manifesto before the shooting
Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma
Has a Bluesky account
There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account
Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting
psychedelics user
at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Contact with CVLT/764/similar
made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)
Was on an FBI watchlist
Had diagnosed mental illness
Former or current Charlie Kirk fan
Will be convicted by EOY 2026
J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy
Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side
Fan fiction author
Femboy
History of illegal drug addiction
Escapes carceral detention
Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time
History of domestic violence
Is right wing
has significant student load debt
Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way
Transgender
groyper
Left-handed
Had felony conviction previously
Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member
Current or previous student at University of Utah
is Mossad
Was a student at UVU
Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)
Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)
Incel
Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)
Accelerationist (any subtype)
Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists
A time traveller trying to avoid the worst
Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets
White Nationalist
The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book
Current or former Roman Catholic
Involved in Effective Altruism
Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?
Has a parent who drives for Uber
decel
Will get killed by law enforcement
Was a fan of Charlie Kirk
The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology
Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)
Used a handgun
Ex-military
Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14
Has a PhD
Has a Manifold account
Muslim
Veteran
History of alcoholism
Will share their first name with a famous video game character
Teenager
50 years or older
Has a master's degree
Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.
Female Ninja Type Sniper
Is or was a computer science student
Ex law enforcement
Married
Parent
Manifold assists with his capture
Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025
Not arrested before EOY 2025
Fled the country after the shooting
Personally knew Charlie Kirk
Enjoys diplomatic immunity
Indian national
The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI
Iranian national
Registered Democrat
Will be convicted by EOY 2025
Will be apprehended at a McDonald's
is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat
Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head
used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory
The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria
100
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0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Imane Khelif is intersex
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
DHMO in the water supply
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
John McAfee didn't kill himself
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The CIA killed JFK
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
The NFL is rigged
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
A cure for cancer has already been found
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Bush did 9/11
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Princess Diana was assassinated
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
90
85
85
82
80
77
76
75
74
71
70
69
65
52
52
51
50
48
46
42
42
42
41
41
39
39
38
37
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36
35
35
32
31
31
30
30
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28
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25
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12
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12
12
11
11
11
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9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)
CIA
Other US government agency or official
Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)
Mafia
Other
Cuban government
KGB / Soviets
LBJ
US military
FBI
Other US leftwing group
Other US rightwing group
US company
Foreign company
Mossad / Israeli government
Other foreign government
Aliens / Illuminati / lizard people
77
15
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
473
21
OptionVotes
YES
NO
131
77
OptionVotes
YES
NO
164
82

