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Prediction markets for Nakamoto
OptionProbability
18
3
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
31
20
17
11
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM
9.35%chance
376006
OptionVotes
3114
321
OptionProbability
32
28
14
12
7
4
2
1
OptionVotes
3382
766
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
42.2%chance
573846
OptionVotes
1216
322
OptionVotes
1459
596
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
45.82%chance
311668
OptionVotes
1237
281
Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
Nov 14, 9:08 AMJan 8, 10:59 PM
17%chance
171638
OptionVotes
221
45
OptionVotes
1069
797
OptionVotes
674
15
Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?
Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.98%chance
15250
OptionVotes
1152
946