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Prediction markets for Nakamoto
OptionProbability
22
13
10
5
5
2
OptionVotes
3082
776
OptionProbability
26
25
21
10
4
4
4
3
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
20.13%chance
412903
OptionVotes
1023
785
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM
17.33%chance
181998
OptionVotes
2184
458
OptionVotes
1276
715
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
20.26%chance
241232
OptionVotes
1019
772
Will the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed by the end of 2025?
Sep 10, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
2.82%chance
271227
OptionVotes
587
17
Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
Nov 14, 9:08 AMJan 8, 10:59 PM
10%chance
11901
OptionVotes
300
33
OptionVotes
1061
970
OptionVotes
365
143
Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?
Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
17.21%chance
14235
OptionVotes
1137
949
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