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Prediction markets for National Bureau of Statistics
OptionProbability
88
86
76
76
75
73
69
63
62
59
56
55
52
50
48
46
40
34
Will it be substantially more expensive to fly in the USA, in 2028?
Aug 22, 12:47 PMAug 2, 6:59 AM
22.25%chance
241036
OptionVotes
1188
870
Will there be >15% unemployment at any time prior to January 1st 2026?
Nov 16, 10:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
3.93%chance
16824
OptionVotes
487
80
What is the real GDP of China in 2024 as a percentage of it's official number?
Apr 21, 11:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
3625
OptionProbability
92
82
41
33
31
28
26
OptionProbability
96
87
74
67
45
41
38
28
28
28
24
14
10
OptionProbability
87
72
66
54
43
36
24
OptionProbability
85
76
66
34
34
34
24
China's battery energy output exceeds 50% of its peak historical coal energy output in any month until December 2025
Dec 10, 3:20 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
54.48%chance
2105
OptionVotes
1094
914
OptionProbability
39
32
11
11
8