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Prediction markets for Nationals

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

18.83%chance

2818701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20765

4816

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13461

7504

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.97%chance

5212270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19342

7418

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.2%chance

3010934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18193

5497

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88174

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

47

39

39

31

25

21

19

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.62%chance

404489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3475

1633

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

302531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)

Feb 26, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.86%chance

361150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2183

1893

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.05%chance

291018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

813

Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026?

Dec 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

45.89%chance

13382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

1167

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