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Nature Warns Global Fertility Slump Could Upend Economies by 2050

6 months ago

HHS’s RFK Jr. Claims Agency Has Found Autism Triggers, Vows September Reveal

US Domestic Policy

Health

Politics

HHS’s RFK Jr. Claims Agency Has Found Autism Triggers, Vows September Reveal

5 months ago

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

239170459

OptionProbability

YES

4793

4747

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

YES

2867

552

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.09%chance

629496

OptionVotes

YES

1241

812

Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.

Nov 7, 1:55 AMJan 20, 5:59 AM

81.09%chance

497126

OptionVotes

YES

2071

483

In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation

Sep 5, 3:34 PMSep 5, 3:34 PM

55.18%chance

107087

OptionVotes

YES

1110

902

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.29%chance

206464

OptionVotes

YES

12015

8196

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

216394

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

Before 2026

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not

Jan 6, 1:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

394773

OptionProbability

Never or on/after 1/1/2029

1/1/2027 - 12/31/2028

1/1/2025 - 12/31/2026

Before 2025

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Jun 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

60.32%chance

1132835

OptionVotes

YES

1647

1345

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

1667

397

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.87%chance

21620

OptionVotes

YES

1044

842

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

56.39%chance

4505

OptionVotes

YES

1137

879

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How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.

In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

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