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Prediction markets for Nature
How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?
Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
56.06%chance
230167258
OptionProbability
5059
4362
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
80.91%chance
11225182
OptionVotes
1618
741
If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?
Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
36.67%chance
619489
OptionVotes
1253
805
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
15%chance
307794
OptionVotes
2286
457
Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]
Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM
42.19%chance
206441
OptionVotes
12038
8179
OptionVotes
1708
1257
An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026
Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
34.3%chance
151979
OptionVotes
1384
723
Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?
Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29.88%chance
251969
OptionVotes
1667
397
Will the world reach peak natural gas production by 2035?
Feb 21, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
53.53%chance
13638
OptionVotes
1081
913
Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?
Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
66%chance
20570
OptionVotes
1069
792
Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.
Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM
62.31%chance
13532
OptionVotes
1286
778
OptionVotes
1195
901