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Nazi News

    Prediction markets for Nazi

    What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter

    Sep 10, 10:03 PMDec 10, 10:57 PM
    595140525

    OptionProbability

    The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

    The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

    Did it on purpose

    The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

    The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

    US citizen

    Male

    Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

    Born in the United States

    Lives (or has lived) in Utah

    Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

    Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

    Native English speaker (L1)

    Is a registered voter

    used a bolt action rifle

    has at least one sibling

    at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

    Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

    “Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

    n/a

    White

    20-27 years old

    Skinny

    Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

    Is named Tyler Robinson

    wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

    Resided in the same state as the incident

    ectomorph body type

    had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

    disliked Charlie Kirk

    Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

    Acted alone (no accomplices)

    He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

    Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

    at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

    Had bullets with engraved messages on them

    Accident please N/A

    has purchased furry-related media or items

    Gamer

    Hunter

    iphone user

    Motivated primarily by political ideology

    Will plead guilty

    has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

    Unemployed

    Is left wing

    is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

    has a furaffinity account

    Owns a car

    Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

    legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

    Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

    actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

    Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

    Is sentenced to death

    Furry

    Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

    Not a virgin

    Owns physical furry paraphernalia

    extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

    Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

    Strongly opposes zionism

    There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

    N/A (oops)

    is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

    is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

    Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

    Dies in prison

    Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

    has used the word yiff in written communication

    Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

    Has ADHD

    Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

    had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

    6 ft tall

    Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

    Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

    was prescribed psychiatric medication

    has vore kink

    Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

    Owned the firearm used

    Went to furry events

    cross-dresser

    Will kill again (including suicide)

    Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

    Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

    JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

    Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

    Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

    White cis-hetero Christian man

    Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

    Participates in this market

    Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

    student at any university

    Owns a fursuit

    Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

    Radical Centrist/JREG fan

    All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

    Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

    Has a Bluesky account

    There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

    Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

    psychedelics user

    at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

    Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

    Contact with CVLT/764/similar

    made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

    Was on an FBI watchlist

    Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

    Had diagnosed mental illness

    Will be convicted by EOY 2026

    J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

    Fan fiction author

    Femboy

    History of illegal drug addiction

    Escapes carceral detention

    Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

    History of domestic violence

    Is right wing

    has significant student load debt

    Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

    Transgender

    groyper

    Left-handed

    Had felony conviction previously

    Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

    Current or previous student at University of Utah

    is Mossad

    Was a student at UVU

    Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

    Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

    Incel

    Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

    Accelerationist (any subtype)

    Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

    A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

    Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

    White Nationalist

    The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

    Current or former Roman Catholic

    Involved in Effective Altruism

    Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

    Has a parent who drives for Uber

    decel

    Will get killed by law enforcement

    Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

    The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

    Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

    Used a handgun

    Ex-military

    Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

    Has a PhD

    Has a Manifold account

    Muslim

    Veteran

    History of alcoholism

    Will share their first name with a famous video game character

    Teenager

    50 years or older

    Has a master's degree

    Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

    Female Ninja Type Sniper

    Is or was a computer science student

    Ex law enforcement

    Married

    Parent

    Manifold assists with his capture

    Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

    Not arrested before EOY 2025

    Fled the country after the shooting

    Personally knew Charlie Kirk

    Enjoys diplomatic immunity

    Indian national

    The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

    Iranian national

    Registered Democrat

    Will be convicted by EOY 2025

    Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

    is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

    Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

    used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

    The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria

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    OptionProbability

    call someone retarded through text or speech

    Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

    A literal red line on the ground/floor

    complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

    Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

    repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

    request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

    explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

    complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Stays alive

    pass 500 or more executive orders

    intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

    new blockade of a country

    Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

    have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

    forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

    declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

    request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

    put his name on a ship in the navy

    call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

    order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

    refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

    complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

    sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

    File lawsuit against a congressperson

    Revoke ten or more citizenships

    Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

    Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

    Says 6 7 (or variant)

    Dep

    Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

    Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

    ten or more protestors killed during term

    Causes Tina Peters' early release

    resume buying oil from Russia

    Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

    sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

    Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

    postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state

    Pardon himself

    closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

    have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

    Raise the retirement age for social security

    Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

    Nominate a family member to high office

    Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

    have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

    Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

    Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

    get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

    Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

    Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

    Call for the end of the Senate

    Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

    Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

    Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

    Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

    Raise contribution limits (FEC)

    add a new federal holiday in his honor

    Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

    have a journalist arrested

    Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

    Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

    call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

    remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

    Pardon a convicted pedophile

    repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

    End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

    host putin at mar a lago

    Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

    Salute Putin

    Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

    federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

    force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

    complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

    Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

    Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

    issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

    classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

    department of defense renamed to Dept of war

    Get rid of Noaa.

    Pardon ghislaine maxwell

    Implement a federal abortion ban

    Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

    force a former president to testify before Congress

    Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

    Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

    Pardon p diddy

    stops all sanctions on Russia

    enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

    Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

    Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

    Withdraw from NATO

    Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

    Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

    revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

    Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    Implement a federal age of consent

    Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

    Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

    Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

    Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

    Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

    All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

    Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

    repeal Obamacare

    pardon derek chauvin

    admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

    Add a citizenship question to the census

    confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

    confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

    debank a congressperson governor or mayor

    Enact price controls on groceries

    Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

    announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

    expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

    Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

    Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

    Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

    actually disinter bodies from another country

    Call for the end of child marriage

    Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

    Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

    change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

    orders arrests of any Biden family member

    delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

    federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

    Prosecute someone for flag burning

    His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

    Announce he’s running for a third term

    cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

    Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

    all time high unemployment reached

    Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

    Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

    Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

    Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

    Replace his Vice President

    Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

    Causes derek chauvin's early release

    declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

    Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

    cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

    Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

    Attack a NATO ally.

    Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

    expand the borders of the usa

    remove tax exempt from only certain religions

    have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

    threaten to disinter bodies from another country

    Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

    fauci in jail at least one week

    take control of a part of ukraine

    add a new state

    pardon george santos

    take state ownership in an airline

    Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

    ban trans people from holding federal offices

    changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

    Annex any part of Mexico

    ends black history month

    Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

    Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

    take control of a part of greenland

    New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

    Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

    Call for the end of gay marriage

    Fully or partially privatize Social Security

    Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

    Postpone the elections due to emergency

    make statements that are negative about labubu

    Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

    Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

    Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

    breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

    Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

    fully nationalize an airline

    stop California from hosting the Olympics

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

    Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

    change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

    change the borders of a state

    breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

    repeal an amendment

    declares a white history month

    Call for the end of the House of Reps

    give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

    enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

    After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

    Call for the end of interracial marriage

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    bans anime

    Wearing a white dress after labor day

    Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

    bans 6 7

    Kidnap the Pope

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    95

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    75

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    OptionProbability

    Kanye West

    Steve Bannon

    Calvin Robinson

    Eduardo Verástegui

    Andrew Tate

    Calin Georgescu

    Harry Redknapp

    David Walliams (Comedian)

    Tommy Robinson

    Pete Hegseth

    Enrique Tarrio

    @Anon99

    Another religious figure in addition to Calvin Robinson

    Julius Malema

    Matteo Salvini

    Elon Musk (again)

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Tristan Tate

    Paul Golding

    George Simion

    Tucker Carlson

    Jacob Chansley

    Markus Persson (Notch)

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Michael Waltz

    Donald Trump

    Any Democratic Senator, Governor, or former Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee

    Narendra Modi

    Cory Booker

    Mel Gibson

    Nigel Farage

    Lars von Trier

    Ching Hai

    Robert Fico

    Nicolás Maduro

    Logan Paul

    Nota Baloyi

    Kim Yo Jong

    Glenn Greenwald

    Conor McGregor

    Steve Witkoff

    Howard Lutnick

    JD Vance

    Viktor Orban

    Alex Jones

    Dave Chappelle

    Erdoğan

    Candace Owens

    Jordan Bardella

    Pam Bondi

    Ben Shapiro

    Palmer Luckey

    Larry Ellison

    Caitlyn Jenner

    Alex Karp

    Joe Exotic

    Jake Paul

    Martin Shkreli

    Sarah Palin

    Lex Fridman

    Guillaume Verdon

    Piers Morgan

    Aravind Srinivas

    Peter Pellegrini

    Alice Weidel

    Marine Le Pen

    Mohammed bin Salman

    David Holz

    Giuseppe Conte

    Valery Gerasimov

    Jean-Luc Mélenchon

    Aleksandar Vučić

    Nayib Bukele

    Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia

    Joe Rogan

    Joel Kaplan

    Javier Milei

    Emily Chang

    Claire Boucher (Grimes)

    Liv Boeree

    Sam Bankman Fried

    Sergey Lavrov

    Marion Maréchal

    Andrew Callaghan

    Liang Wenfeng

    Owen Jones

    Mario Nawfal

    Kim Dotcom

    Felix Kjellberg

    Alexander Lukashenko

    Marco Rubio

    Ghislaine Maxwell

    Ivanka Trump

    Stephen Miller

    Jiankui He

    George Hotz

    Melania Trump

    Jared Kushner

    Trey Parker

    Brett Kavanaugh

    Robert Downey Jr.

    John Cena

    Peter Thiel

    Usha Vance

    Liz Truss

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Geert Wilders

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Matt Stone

    Vladimir Solovyov

    Ramzan Kadyrov

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Amichai Chikli

    Dwayne Johnson

    J.K.Rowling

    Vladimir Putin

    Jeff Bezos

    Xi Jinping

    Rudy Giuliani

    Tim Walz

    Itamar Ben-Gvir

    joe biden

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Michelle Obama

    100

    100

    100

    100

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    100

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    100

    21

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    1

    OptionProbability

    Bond will be a man

    Gunplay

    Bond drives a car

    Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

    On screen fatalities

    London will appear on screen

    Car chase scene

    Urban scene

    Bond tells ≥1 joke

    Blue-eyed Bond

    Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

    World capital other than London appears on screen

    A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

    A named character speaks in a language other than English

    Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

    Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

    Bond drinks a martini

    Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

    Opening action sequence

    The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

    Gun Barrel Sequence

    Sex scene

    Q appears

    Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

    Hacking electronics of some form

    Bond uses explosives

    The plot will be predominantly set in present day

    Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

    The main theme song will be sung by a female

    The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

    Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

    A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

    Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

    Asia will appear on screen

    It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

    Someone goes through a pane of glass

    A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

    "King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

    Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

    Someone in the movie says the title

    @HenriThunberg enjoys the film

    It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

    The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

    >= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

    The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

    Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

    South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

    The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

    Bond rides a motorcycle

    >=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

    Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

    A sniper rifle is fired

    At least a portion filmed in Canada

    There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

    Bond wields a Walther PPK

    Interracial sex scene

    Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

    Jungle / forest scene

    Bond flys an aircraft

    James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

    Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

    Casino game scene

    Bond parachutes

    It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

    Bond wears shorts

    Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

    >=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

    Arctic scene

    Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

    Bond gets slapped

    M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

    Prison/jail scene

    Black market trafficking

    A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

    Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

    Released in 2028

    Skydiving

    The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

    A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

    Bond licks something

    Bond and a pond shown on screen together

    someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

    Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

    Bond slaps someone

    A scene shows James Bond naked

    Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

    Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

    Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

    There will be a voiced character that is an AI

    Bond rides a bicycle

    Torture

    James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

    Bond receives a gunshot wound

    A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

    Wilhelm scream

    Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

    The title will refer to life and/or death

    @brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

    Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

    Bond drives a boat

    A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

    Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

    James Bond plays poker

    Bond commits arson

    Oral sex

    Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

    Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

    Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

    Bond has facial hair

    Terrorists

    US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

    Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

    A safe is cracked (any means possible)

    Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

    Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

    Desert scene

    The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

    A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

    Ski chase scene

    Drug use

    Someone/something is x-rayed

    Thunderstorm

    Dessert scene

    An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    President of the United States is mentioned

    IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

    Robots

    Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

    Death of a Bond love interest

    It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

    Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

    Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

    There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

    Bond wears a mask

    Sharks

    Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

    Bond will be in a submarine

    James Bond plays baccarat

    Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

    Cryptocurrency is referenced

    Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

    Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

    Bond is LQBTQ+

    Bond rides an animal

    James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

    Main villain speaks Russian on screen

    Bond has a disability

    Nazis (neo- counts)

    Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

    Mexico is shown on screen

    Jetpack

    The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

    An EMP device plays a central role.

    Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

    At least one named character below 18 years old

    Orgy

    Canada is shown on screen

    Will feature something that can turn invisible

    A hamburger appears on screen

    Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

    Underwater combat

    Bond goes to space

    The word "fuck" is said more than once.

    With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

    Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

    Bond is blond

    Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

    Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

    Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

    A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    Assplay

    Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

    Bond plays Russian roulette

    Bond uses a VR headset

    Bond has a neck tattoo

    Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

    The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

    Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

    fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

    A pinball machine will appear.

    Gay sex scene

    Pirates

    Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

    Emilia Clarke portrays a character

    A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

    Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

    Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

    San Francisco is shown on screen

    Pegging

    Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

    Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

    Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

    Satanism

    Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

    A clocks shows the time 4:20

    It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

    Feature Nightcore music

    Supernatural entities

    There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

    ChatGPT is referenced by any character

    Bond uses chopsticks

    Released in 2026

    Nuclear explosion

    Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

    Any character says the word "anime"

    Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

    Vampires

    Bond vapes

    Bond won't be Caucasian

    The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

    Bond dies

    Scat play

    Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

    Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

    Horse cock on screen (erect)

    Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

    Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

    The handkerchief code is a major plot element

    James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

    Bond is vegan

    The fourth wall is broken

    It will be directed by a woman

    Bond plays League of Legends

    Destiny appears on screen

    Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

    Dragons

    Dinosaurs

    It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

    Bond hits the griddy

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    1

    1

    Will Trump do the Roman / Nazi Salute by the end of his 2nd term?

    Feb 21, 4:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    13.11%chance
    929814

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2575

    388

    If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

    Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    65.95%chance
    632385

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1476

    649

    Is Kim Dotcom a Russian agent?

    Feb 2, 8:23 PMMar 4, 11:59 PM
    49.2%chance
    331743

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1080

    903

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    207

    48

    Is a potential white genocide brewing in South Africa?

    Aug 1, 8:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    6.29%chance
    14510

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    524

    132

    OptionProbability

    Any Incumbent Governor or Member of Congress

    Any Democrat Running for Elected Office

    Any Self Described Socialist

    Ben Shapiro

    Candace Owens

    Clavicular

    Donald Trump

    JD Vance

    The Incumbent Prime Minister of Israel

    The Incumbent President of Ukraine

    66

    50

    41

    34

    34

    28

    24

    24

    20

    16

    David Walliams publicly disgraced by 2027

    Dec 19, 11:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    50.08%chance
    4125

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1002

    998

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