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Top stories

Watchdog Says NEA and AFT Steered $43 Million to Democratic-Aligned Groups

Watchdog Says NEA and AFT Steered $43 Million to Democratic-Aligned Groups

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for NEA

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

Is there a vast complex of underground chambers and shafts extending nearly two kilometers under the pyramids?

Mar 23, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.95%chance

218466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4931

204

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

756080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

2259

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.48%chance

474616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3122

158

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.32%chance

483391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

869

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.68%chance

613182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

589

Will nearly all of the Epstein files be released before 2027?

Nov 15, 9:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.39%chance

382060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2075

701

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

22.7%chance

251363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

953

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65.16%chance

161015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1502

549

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will an anime character modeled off of @repligate/janus be instantiated by nearcyan's Elysian labs by 2028

May 19, 11:30 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.08%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

962

Latest stories

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Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
US Elections
Education
Politics
Watchdog Says NEA and AFT Steered $43 Million to Democratic-Aligned Groups
Authors
4
1 year ago

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