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Top stories

Watchdog Says NEA and AFT Steered $43 Million to Democratic-Aligned Groups

Watchdog Says NEA and AFT Steered $43 Million to Democratic-Aligned Groups

Authors

4

10 months ago

Prediction markets for NEA

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Is there a vast complex of underground chambers and shafts extending nearly two kilometers under the pyramids?

Mar 23, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.95%chance

218466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4931

204

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14639

6831

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.3%chance

736025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2441

2204

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will nearly all of the Epstein files be released before 2027?

Nov 15, 9:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.87%chance

371707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

801

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

22.72%chance

241362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

952

Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?

Nov 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.4%chance

5904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

806

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will an anime character modeled off of @repligate/janus be instantiated by nearcyan's Elysian labs by 2028

May 19, 11:30 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.08%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

962

Latest stories

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Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
US Elections
Education
Politics
Watchdog Says NEA and AFT Steered $43 Million to Democratic-Aligned Groups
Authors
4
10 months ago

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