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Top stories

El Salvador Lawmakers End Term Limits, Paving Way for Unlimited Bukele Rule

El Salvador Lawmakers End Term Limits, Paving Way for Unlimited Bukele Rule

Authors

39

2 days ago

Prediction markets for New Ideas

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.67%chance

18381290656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4963

3791

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week?

Mar 27, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.36%chance

13010223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

837

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.47%chance

177227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2427

402

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

53.85%chance

604322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

947

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

54.88%chance

242972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.28%chance

712780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1737

971

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Faucet. Borrow money forever.

Mar 30, 10:11 PMDec 30, 9:03 PM

38.1%chance

12456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

999

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 1, 2025
Aug 1, 2025
El Salvador
Politics
World
El Salvador Lawmakers End Term Limits, Paving Way for Unlimited Bukele Rule
Authors
39
2 days ago

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