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Prediction markets for New Ideas
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
56.67%chance
18391290856
OptionVotes
4963
3791
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
71.75%chance
464679780
OptionVotes
17782
9207
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.52%chance
3412373
OptionVotes
19679
5082
🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week?
Mar 27, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61.36%chance
13010223
OptionVotes
1273
837
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
23.47%chance
177227
OptionVotes
2427
402
OptionVotes
1031
947
4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.
Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
54.88%chance
242972
OptionVotes
1103
907
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM
70.28%chance
712780
OptionVotes
1737
971
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%chance
311936
OptionVotes
1629
626
OptionVotes
1043
999
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
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