New Look News

Poundland Wins Court Nod for Rescue as UK Retail Turmoil Deepens

10 months ago

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

10.26%chance

6641051

OptionVotes

YES

29408

3081

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.63%chance

11121698

OptionVotes

YES

2269

1739

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818873

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1714357

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Jan 7, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

609236

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166460

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

146264

OptionVotes

YES

1511

662

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Why did Trump switch on the Epstein files vote / what’s his plan?

Nov 18, 9:39 PMDec 31, 9:27 PM

271300

OptionProbability

Similar to initial release where they release nothing (substantially) new and it looks like a coverup with an excuse of being under investigation or similar

They completed redacting the files to his pleasing

None of the above, just wanted to get it over with (inevitable) no ulterior motive other than approval / appearance of power / part of his plan

Senate won’t pass it

He’ll veto it

Manifold+Goodreads - mc-ul - I add new books to read, later resolve to my rating. I won't look at your positions

Dec 3, 11:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2120

OptionProbability

The King of Elfland's Daughter

Theft of Fire by Michael Edelson

Invisible China - Rozelle & Hell

The Idiot - Dostoyevsky

The Conservative Futurist - Pethokoukis

Burn Math Class

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(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Why did Trump switch on the Epstein files vote / what’s his plan?

Manifold+Goodreads - mc-ul - I add new books to read, later resolve to my rating. I won't look at your positions

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