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Prediction markets for New York Democrats

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4842

207

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

204009

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

Shapiro is arrested

21

7

7

4

3

Will wokeness peak in the United States in the 2020s?

Mar 12, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92%chance

303366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

539

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

152709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

722

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.64%chance

482387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5267

1567

Eric Adams no longer identifies as a Democrat by December 31, 2025

Apr 12, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

232093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Who will win the 2029 New York City Democratic mayoral primary?

Jun 25, 1:40 AMJun 24, 10:59 PM

171198

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

No one

Andrew Yang

Brad Lander

Andrew Cuomo

63

13

4

4

3

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?

Nov 7, 11:04 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

35.71%chance

5583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

745

Chamath prediction: democrats lose one of California or New York by 2032?

Nov 9, 8:00 AMNov 1, 1:59 PM

34.03%chance

8490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Democratic nominee for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election

Dec 9, 9:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8127

OptionProbability

Kathy Hochul

Ritchie Torres

Antonio Delgado

Alvin Bragg

Eric Gonzalez

Letitia James

Jumaane Williams

AOC

Other

Andrew Cuomo

63

16

9

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

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