New York Times News

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

10 months ago

New York Times Puts Mini Crossword Behind Paywall, Prompting User Backlash and Highlighting Quick Cross Alternative

Business

Culture

New York Times Puts Mini Crossword Behind Paywall, Prompting User Backlash and Highlighting Quick Cross Alternative

10 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Chicago

Politics

Pritzker Rejects Trump Threat to Deploy National Guard in Chicago

10 months ago

China

US Elections

New York

NYT Says Chinese Consulate Steers New York Elections Through Nonprofits

10 months ago

Health

Politics

Science

NYT Tones Down Warning on RFK Jr.-Backed Push-Up Challenge

10 months ago

US Legislation

Policy

Politics

Klobuchar Presses Congress for NO FAKES Act After Viral Deepfake

10 months ago

US Elections

Politics

Democrats Shed 2.1 Million Voters Since 2020, NYT Analysis Shows

10 months ago

Celebrities

Culture

Sarah Jessica Parker Brushes Off Backlash Over ‘And Just Like That’ Finale

10 months ago

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239715

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Dec 27, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.55%chance

799213

OptionVotes

YES

1428

958

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45%chance

324093

OptionVotes

YES

1147

768

Will the New York Times declare that there is definitive proof of non-Earth-originating life by 2030?

Jul 27, 3:58 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.31%chance

463582

OptionVotes

YES

2941

761

Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.03%chance

263041

OptionVotes

YES

1731

861

When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

Jul 2, 4:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

211662

OptionProbability

Before 2030

2040 or later

Between 2030-2039

Other

Never, AGI kills all humans first

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

22.88%chance

71550

OptionVotes

YES

1836

545

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Oct 26, 6:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.77%chance

91390

OptionVotes

YES

1743

574

Will Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?

Apr 8, 2:39 AMApr 8, 4:59 AM

4.69%chance

201080

OptionVotes

YES

2032

916

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027

Mar 24, 2:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7738

OptionProbability

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

Above 500

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030

Mar 24, 2:05 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6292

OptionProbability

1 - 5

Above 500

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

Able to read an article for a very small charge on New York Times by end of 2027?

Jan 21, 9:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.16%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

212

144

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New York Times News

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Prediction markets for New York Times

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New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

Will the New York Times declare that there is definitive proof of non-Earth-originating life by 2030?

Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Will Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030

Able to read an article for a very small charge on New York Times by end of 2027?

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