NOAA News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

New national park created

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Approval < 35%

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US national bitcoin reserve created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

A new supreme court justice appointed

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Joe Biden dies

Dow rises above 65,000

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump says a racial slur

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Kennedy Center is repurposed

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Tesla

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

BTC falls below $38,000

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump runs 4 president (physically runs >4x the average height of US presidents in a continuous go)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Deep funding cuts to nih, cdc, hhs, fda all implemented and becomes law

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

McDonald's reopens in Russia

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US Invasion of any North/South American country

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

American Manned Lunar Landing

Approval < 25%

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

War is declared against another nation

Kennedy Center is demolished

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump loses the fake tan

10% fewer government agencies

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump breaks a bone in his body

Trump dies

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down and cease to exist

Trump runs for a third term

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump pumps a plump rump (grabs and moves back and forth someone else's butt)

World war 3 occurs and global war is launched

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Repeal obamacare

Trump is assassinated

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

54 or more Republican senate seats

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

United States becomes totalitarian dictatorship

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

55 or more Republican senate seats

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

call someone retarded through text or speech

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

Not pardon SBF

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

Causes Tina Peters' early release

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

pass 500 or more executive orders

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

put his name on a ship in the navy

new blockade of a country

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

Stays alive

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

Pardon himself

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

Says 6 7 (or variant)

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

Revoke ten or more citizenships

File lawsuit against a congressperson

resume buying oil from Russia

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

Dep

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

ten or more protestors killed during term

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

Raise the retirement age for social security

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

Nominate a family member to high office

Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Call for the end of the Senate

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

add a new federal holiday in his honor

have a journalist arrested

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Postpone the elections due to emergency

Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

Pardon a convicted pedophile

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

host putin at mar a lago

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

Salute Putin

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state

Announce he’s running for a third term

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Get rid of Noaa.

force a former president to testify before Congress

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Implement a federal age of consent

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

repeal Obamacare

pardon derek chauvin

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

Add a citizenship question to the census

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

Enact price controls on groceries

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

actually disinter bodies from another country

Call for the end of child marriage

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Gives Russia access to a non-public frontier AI model

stops all sanctions on Russia

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

orders arrests of any Biden family member

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

Prosecute someone for flag burning

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

Replace his Vice President

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Causes derek chauvin's early release

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Attack a NATO ally.

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

expand the borders of the usa

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

all time high unemployment reached

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

fauci in jail at least one week

take control of a part of ukraine

pardon george santos

take state ownership in an airline

Withdraw from NATO

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

ban trans people from holding federal offices

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Annex any part of Mexico

ends black history month

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

take control of a part of greenland

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Pardon p diddy

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

fully nationalize an airline

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

declares a white history month

Implement a federal abortion ban

make statements that are negative about labubu

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

change the borders of a state

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

repeal an amendment

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

add a new state

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Kidnap the Pope

bans anime

Wearing a white dress after labor day

Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

NO

YES

An executive order is issued and upheld requiring all federal agencies to use the new name?

It changes on Google Maps?

The Interior Secretary orders the name change?

NOAA officially adopts the new name in all nautical charts and documentation?

Louisiana changes the name on official state documents and maps?

USGS updates Geographic Names Information System, or G.N.I.S., to reflect the name change?

Florida changes name on official documents and maps

Texas changes the name on official state documents and maps?

The Department of Defense mandates the use of the new name in all military operations and documents?

Alabama changes name on official documents and maps?

A joint resolution of Congress (not from MTG) approves the name change?

The President requires states to change references to the name in order receive federal aid?

Legislation drafted by Marjorie Taylor Greene is passed by Congress and signed by the President?

The Foreign Names Committee of the US Bureau of Geographic Names approves a change to the official name?

The International Hydrographic Organization approves the change?

Mexico agrees to the name change through diplomatic channels?

NO

YES

YES

+2.45 to +2.59

Below +2.30

+2.30 to +2.44

YES

+3.5°C

+3.4°C

+3.6°C

+3.7°C or higher