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Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

1167407

OptionVotes

YES

1826

1079

Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?

Aug 17, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.47%chance

267066

OptionVotes

YES

13697

8739

Will Apple face any non-monetary consequences in United States of America v. Apple Inc.?

Mar 21, 3:05 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

28%chance

725757

OptionVotes

YES

1909

367

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

10661

9352

Will OpenAI announce a massively recursive model, a new mechinterp system, and non-token based pricing, before December?

Oct 15, 12:48 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

4.46%chance

204353

OptionVotes

YES

1121

994

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.73%chance

764207

OptionVotes

YES

1281

1116

Will more than a gram of non-radioactive gold be produced from mercury by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

61549

OptionVotes

YES

2380

420

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Mar 18, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.23%chance

211404

OptionVotes

YES

1380

523

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Jun 15, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

10645

OptionVotes

YES

100

By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?

Sep 22, 1:03 PMJan 1, 2:02 PM

4500

OptionProbability

Jan 1st 2050

Jan 1st 2030

Jan 1st 2028

Jan 1st 2029

Jan 1st 2027

Jan 1st 2026

Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?

Apr 13, 6:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.23%chance

135490

OptionVotes

YES

2106

1843

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Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?

Will Apple face any non-monetary consequences in United States of America v. Apple Inc.?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Will OpenAI announce a massively recursive model, a new mechinterp system, and non-token based pricing, before December?

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Will more than a gram of non-radioactive gold be produced from mercury by 2030?

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?

Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?

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