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Prediction markets for Non
OptionVotes
2222
450
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.49%chance
1157357
OptionVotes
1856
1029
Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?
Aug 17, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.4%chance
266157
OptionVotes
13741
8727
Will Apple face any non-monetary consequences in United States of America v. Apple Inc.?
Mar 21, 3:05 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
28%chance
725757
OptionVotes
1909
367
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
47.84%chance
125581
OptionVotes
10661
9352
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
30.73%chance
764207
OptionVotes
1281
1116
Will more than a gram of non-radioactive gold be produced from mercury by 2030?
Jul 21, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15%chance
61549
OptionVotes
2380
420
Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?
Mar 18, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
58.23%chance
211404
OptionVotes
1380
523
OptionVotes
100
100
By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?
Sep 22, 1:03 PMJan 1, 2:02 PM
4500
OptionProbability
40
26
20
20
9
3
Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?
Apr 13, 6:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
32.23%chance
135490
OptionVotes
2106
1843
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