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Prediction markets for OECD

Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?

Mar 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

86.58%chance

7314271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1495

1133

Will any OECD country effectively introduce a form of UBI before 2033?

May 3, 5:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

71.75%chance

464346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

627

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

68.89%chance

563928

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1580

891

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213754

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

62

55

55

50

45

44

41

37

34

17

Will any OECD country undergo a sovereign debt crisis by end of 2025?

Sep 29, 1:08 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.32%chance

142264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

876

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

Will any OECD or NATO country experience a successful coup d'état by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.49%chance

9253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

148

Which of these countries will be the first to become an OECD member?

Nov 6, 12:33 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9222

OptionProbability

Croatia

Argentina

Peru

Bulgaria

Brazil

Romania

25

21

16

15

12

11

How many OECD countries will have court ordered semaglutide drugs (e.g., Ozempic) by the end of 2030

Mar 1, 10:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11212

OptionProbability

0 or 1

2 or more

79

21

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