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Prediction markets for OECD
Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?
Mar 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
86.58%chance
7314271
OptionVotes
1495
1133
Will any OECD country effectively introduce a form of UBI before 2033?
May 3, 5:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
69.74%chance
474446
OptionVotes
1486
658
OptionProbability
1600
882
Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?
Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
213780
OptionProbability
99
95
95
80
80
72
56
54
54
49
44
43
40
36
34
17
Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?
Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
82.26%chance
241255
OptionVotes
1445
838
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?
Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.14%chance
4750
OptionVotes
1650
606
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.85%chance
15727
OptionVotes
1151
729
Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
55%chance
11274
OptionVotes
242
126
Will any OECD or NATO country experience a successful coup d'état by 2030?
Jan 13, 12:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
24.83%chance
9269
OptionVotes
169
155
Which of these countries will be the first to become an OECD member?
Nov 6, 12:33 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
10227
OptionProbability
26
22
17
14
12
10
How many OECD countries will have court ordered semaglutide drugs (e.g., Ozempic) by the end of 2030
Mar 1, 10:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11212
OptionProbability
79
21
By the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?
Nov 26, 5:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.86%chance
6199
OptionVotes
1125
889
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