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Prediction markets for On Holding
Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?
Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
68.47%chance
6813447
OptionVotes
1559
237
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM
46.63%chance
10412863
OptionVotes
1271
1003
On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark
Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
84.23%chance
415711
OptionVotes
2299
317
Will Argentina hold presidential elections on schedule in 2027?
Nov 20, 3:13 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM
93%chance
384527
OptionVotes
2630
744
Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?
Apr 5, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.71%chance
373527
OptionVotes
2659
684
Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?
Feb 26, 8:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
15.41%chance
52115
OptionVotes
2343
427
Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?
Apr 5, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.36%chance
221775
OptionVotes
1154
907
Alberta will hold a referendum on independence by December 31, 2025
Mar 30, 5:47 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
1.77%chance
91712
OptionVotes
744
13
Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?
Mar 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.08%chance
16673
OptionVotes
283
35
OptionVotes
1182
924
Will Australia hold a referendum on whether to retain the monarchy before 2030?
Feb 29, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
85.24%chance
7438
OptionVotes
329
44
Will my model Y 2023 be able to drive on a highway in California without me holding the wheel before end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:41 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
63.52%chance
386
OptionVotes
98
41
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