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Prediction markets for ON
Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?
Nov 13, 4:14 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
17.56%chance
548335912
OptionVotes
7855
5297
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
28%chance
455323595
OptionVotes
2764
2317
Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?
May 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.64%chance
474211069
OptionVotes
4270
3314
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
28.13%chance
143124122
OptionVotes
14461
9183
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
49.62%chance
41389271
OptionVotes
11247
10473
Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?
Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM
29.57%chance
1953878
OptionVotes
16624
6806
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.35%chance
3947145
OptionVotes
118404
88423
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.55%chance
14617629
OptionVotes
10157
9791
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
53.76%chance
419642
OptionVotes
11501
8468
Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?
Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
58.05%chance
183705
OptionVotes
10462
9632
Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?
Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.19%chance
132736
OptionVotes
11683
8566
Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026.
Jan 16, 7:19 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
38.52%chance
6147
OptionVotes
126
79
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