ONC News

Egerton, Baker Brothers Lead Q2 Hedge-Fund Portfolio Shifts

5 days ago

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

19634569

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.14%chance

599061

OptionVotes

YES

1032

735

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.61%chance

717561

OptionVotes

YES

1278

1073

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.07%chance

272657

OptionVotes

YES

2106

1894

Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?

Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.13%chance

562229

OptionVotes

YES

1366

705

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.75%chance

191961

OptionVotes

YES

1917

780

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.18%chance

261800

OptionVotes

YES

1022

971

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.9%chance

161270

OptionVotes

YES

1001

978

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

72.73%chance

15859

OptionVotes

YES

1649

585

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.92%chance

19812

OptionVotes

YES

1010

970

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM

70.11%chance

4700

OptionVotes

YES

1534

656

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

YES

1156

931

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Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
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Egerton, Baker Brothers Lead Q2 Hedge-Fund Portfolio Shifts
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Prediction markets for ONC

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Prediction markets for ONC

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

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