ONC News

Egerton, Baker Brothers Lead Q2 Hedge-Fund Portfolio Shifts

3 months ago

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

19937419

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.14%chance

599061

OptionVotes

YES

1032

735

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.61%chance

717561

OptionVotes

YES

1278

1073

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.27%chance

282666

OptionVotes

YES

2115

1887

Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?

Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.99%chance

572386

OptionVotes

YES

1204

861

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.18%chance

261800

OptionVotes

YES

1022

971

Before the end of 2025, the Russians will at least once try to carry out a large offensive on the city of Kharkov

Apr 3, 11:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.84%chance

241595

OptionVotes

YES

1949

341

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

44.49%chance

161359

OptionVotes

YES

1085

919

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.59%chance

171280

OptionVotes

YES

988

980

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.92%chance

19812

OptionVotes

YES

1010

970

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM

70.11%chance

4700

OptionVotes

YES

1534

656

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

YES

1156

931

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Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
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Egerton, Baker Brothers Lead Q2 Hedge-Fund Portfolio Shifts
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Prediction markets for ONC

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Prediction markets for ONC

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Before the end of 2025, the Russians will at least once try to carry out a large offensive on the city of Kharkov

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Latest stories

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