ONC News

Egerton, Baker Brothers Lead Q2 Hedge-Fund Portfolio Shifts

1 year ago

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20139190

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.17%chance

6610633

OptionVotes

YES

983

790

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.24%chance

747641

OptionVotes

YES

1226

1131

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.76%chance

373577

OptionVotes

YES

2678

1415

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.72%chance

313499

OptionVotes

YES

1972

710

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

23.88%chance

172272

OptionVotes

YES

1756

583

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.07%chance

271900

OptionVotes

YES

1122

858

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM

49%chance

151426

OptionVotes

YES

1024

982

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Apr 7, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.16%chance

301266

OptionVotes

YES

1328

1049

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will any country that has once institutionalized same-sex marriage ban it again before 2030?

Nov 28, 3:15 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

38.07%chance

32942

OptionVotes

YES

1145

888

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.92%chance

19812

OptionVotes

YES

1010

970

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Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
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Egerton, Baker Brothers Lead Q2 Hedge-Fund Portfolio Shifts
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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for ONC

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Prediction markets for ONC

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will any country that has once institutionalized same-sex marriage ban it again before 2030?

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Latest stories

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