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Prediction markets for ONC
If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM
20342056
OptionProbability
92
85
39
26
21
2
0
This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.
Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.1%chance
6710634
OptionVotes
984
789
Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?
Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
46.24%chance
747641
OptionVotes
1226
1131
If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?
Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
86.59%chance
417176
OptionVotes
5009
891
Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?
Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
23.88%chance
172272
OptionVotes
1756
583
Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?
Mar 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
35.07%chance
271900
OptionVotes
1122
858
Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI
Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM
49%chance
151426
OptionVotes
1024
982
Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?
Apr 7, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
14.16%chance
301266
OptionVotes
1328
1049
Will Iran strike US military base at least once before December?
Oct 31, 2:22 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
56.25%chance
14989
OptionVotes
1134
882
Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
78%chance
16943
OptionVotes
1382
859
Will any country that has once institutionalized same-sex marriage ban it again before 2030?
Nov 28, 3:15 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM
38.07%chance
32942
OptionVotes
1145
888
Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?
Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
24.92%chance
19812
OptionVotes
1010
970
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