ONC News

Egerton, Baker Brothers Lead Q2 Hedge-Fund Portfolio Shifts

8 months ago

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20139190

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6410425

OptionVotes

YES

1001

768

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.24%chance

747641

OptionVotes

YES

1226

1131

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.27%chance

293435

OptionVotes

YES

1916

720

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.97%chance

312765

OptionVotes

YES

2101

1898

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

172172

OptionVotes

YES

1656

616

Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?

May 4, 9:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.47%chance

131994

OptionVotes

YES

2247

445

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.07%chance

271900

OptionVotes

YES

1122

858

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Apr 7, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.16%chance

301266

OptionVotes

YES

1328

1049

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.92%chance

19812

OptionVotes

YES

1010

970

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM

63.59%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

1324

760

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Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
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Egerton, Baker Brothers Lead Q2 Hedge-Fund Portfolio Shifts
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Prediction markets for ONC

Prediction markets for ONC

Prediction markets for ONC

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

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