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Prediction markets for ONC
If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM
19634569
OptionProbability
91
72
35
26
17
7
0
This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.
Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51.14%chance
599061
OptionVotes
1032
735
Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?
Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
48.61%chance
717561
OptionVotes
1278
1073
If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?
Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
56.07%chance
272657
OptionVotes
2106
1894
Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?
Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
55.13%chance
562229
OptionVotes
1366
705
Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?
Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.75%chance
191961
OptionVotes
1917
780
Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?
Mar 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.18%chance
261800
OptionVotes
1022
971
Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31.9%chance
161270
OptionVotes
1001
978
Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?
Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
72.73%chance
15859
OptionVotes
1649
585
Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?
Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
24.92%chance
19812
OptionVotes
1010
970
Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI
Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM
70.11%chance
4700
OptionVotes
1534
656
Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
73.23%chance
14560
OptionVotes
1156
931
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