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Prediction markets for Open

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.82%chance

394172143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5304

1680

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67112101

Will Pope Leo XIV openly criticize Trump in 2025?

May 8, 6:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

22135148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

Nov 30, 3:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.4%chance

11333437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

1396

Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?

Mar 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

68.21%chance

12029657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

21322656

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

International Peacekeeping Force

PLO

United States

Other

Territorial rule by tribal clans

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia

A new Gaza-elected government

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

Qatar

Jordan

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

42

24

11

8

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Open AI launch a social media app by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 12:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

586279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1629

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Mar 25, 1:21 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

48.27%chance

192251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

76.77%chance

381544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2360

1812

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will Google Open Source a 7b or larger model based on their Titans Architecture before 2026?

Mar 8, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47%chance

8308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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