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Prediction markets for OPEN
When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
87146143
OptionProbability
60
26
4
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM
23029119
OptionProbability
33
27
24
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?
Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM
95.34%chance
9710447
OptionVotes
2947
41
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM
49.18%chance
466533
OptionVotes
1016
984
Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?
Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM
82.68%chance
392256
OptionVotes
3072
1633
2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)
Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.9%chance
91750
OptionVotes
2623
2468
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Jun 13, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.25%chance
191572
OptionVotes
1720
581
Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Jul 24, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
75.09%chance
13885
OptionVotes
1795
255
Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?
Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.62%chance
9702
OptionVotes
10538
9489
Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
37.73%chance
18430
OptionVotes
1147
1002
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