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Prediction markets for OPEN
Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)
Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
2.09%chance
403219724
OptionVotes
11166
1492
When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
68113453
OptionProbability
70
19
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
3537
283
OptionVotes
5267
645
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM
22427674
OptionProbability
28
27
25
7
4
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?
Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM
91.43%chance
9410054
OptionVotes
2554
67
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM
50%chance
364585
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?
Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM
82%chance
382155
OptionVotes
2971
1655
Will Trump and Mamdani openly feud before February 21?
Nov 22, 12:58 AMFeb 20, 11:59 PM
62.5%chance
241248
OptionVotes
1291
775
Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?
Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.62%chance
9702
OptionVotes
10538
9489
Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.09%chance
14135
OptionVotes
1178
1053
In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?
Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25
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