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Prediction markets for OPEN
When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
83141411
OptionProbability
61
28
6
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
Jul 19, 2:27 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
16.49%chance
22091568
OptionVotes
22645
4161
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM
23029099
OptionProbability
32
28
24
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?
Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM
94.59%chance
9710347
OptionVotes
2847
46
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM
49.32%chance
425307
OptionVotes
1014
986
OptionVotes
1732
155
Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?
Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM
82.35%chance
392206
OptionVotes
3022
1644
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Jun 13, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.56%chance
191540
OptionVotes
1753
571
OptionVotes
3466
2193
Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?
Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.62%chance
9702
OptionVotes
10538
9489
Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Jul 24, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.62%chance
10601
OptionVotes
1545
362
Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.72%chance
15185
OptionVotes
1228
1030
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