Optimism News

Wyoming Launches Frontier Stable Token Backed by USD on Seven Blockchains, First U.S. State-Issued Stablecoin

4 months ago

What is the optimal "Bid per redeem" (in MANA)?

May 24, 2:59 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

109691

OptionProbability

YES

109

103

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

4.33%chance

224894

OptionVotes

YES

4383

592

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

10.84%chance

193742

OptionVotes

YES

1138

813

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

43.1%chance

322836

OptionVotes

YES

1250

736

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

1037

955

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.97%chance

282061

OptionVotes

YES

1180

572

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

1114

947

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

61.16%chance

8126

OptionVotes

YES

125

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Apr 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.25%chance

8121

OptionVotes

YES

203

110

Will async SGD become the main large-scale NN optimization method before 2031?

May 8, 9:38 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

82.8%chance

3121

OptionVotes

YES

219

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

1056

965

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Aug 19, 2025
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Wyoming Launches Frontier Stable Token Backed by USD on Seven Blockchains, First U.S. State-Issued Stablecoin
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What is the optimal "Bid per redeem" (in MANA)?

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Will async SGD become the main large-scale NN optimization method before 2031?

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram