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Prediction markets for Optimism

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

10.84%chance

193742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

813

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

43.1%chance

322836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

736

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

955

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.14%chance

282011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

654

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.35%chance

211786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

870

What is the outcome of a traditional game of chess, with optimal play?

Sep 29, 2:42 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

111090

OptionProbability

Draw

Win for white

Other

Win for black

Avoiding play in the first place.

93

3

2

1

0

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

947

>2000 number theory will show up in optimization

Oct 29, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.53%chance

9278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

71

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Apr 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.25%chance

8121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

110

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

73.73%chance

7106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

60

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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