Optimism News

Wyoming Launches Frontier Stable Token Backed by USD on Seven Blockchains, First U.S. State-Issued Stablecoin

1 year ago

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

203767

OptionVotes

YES

952

838

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

31.58%chance

353262

OptionVotes

YES

1552

557

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

1037

955

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.84%chance

292111

OptionVotes

YES

1230

503

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Sep 26, 6:13 PMDec 31, 7:12 PM

96.28%chance

131135

OptionVotes

YES

509

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

1114

947

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.92%chance

3113

OptionVotes

YES

117

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

1056

965

Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 10, 4:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

741

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will "The optimal age to freeze eggs is 19" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 9, 6:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1007

999

PROMISE (OPTIMISM replica of Perseverence Mars Rover) roam the moon by Christmas Eve 2029?

Jul 3, 3:07 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

28.56%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
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Wyoming Launches Frontier Stable Token Backed by USD on Seven Blockchains, First U.S. State-Issued Stablecoin
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1 year ago

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Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "The optimal age to freeze eggs is 19" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

PROMISE (OPTIMISM replica of Perseverence Mars Rover) roam the moon by Christmas Eve 2029?

Latest stories

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