Optimism News

Wyoming Launches Frontier Stable Token Backed by USD on Seven Blockchains, First U.S. State-Issued Stablecoin

7 months ago

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

203767

OptionVotes

YES

952

838

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

43%chance

342962

OptionVotes

YES

1252

734

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

1037

955

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.84%chance

292111

OptionVotes

YES

1230

503

World Optimism Stock (Permanent)

Jan 27, 7:48 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

111692

OptionProbability

YES

329

193

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Sep 26, 6:13 PMDec 31, 7:12 PM

96.28%chance

131135

OptionVotes

YES

509

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

1114

947

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

61.16%chance

8126

OptionVotes

YES

125

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Apr 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.25%chance

8121

OptionVotes

YES

203

110

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

1056

965

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will "The optimal age to freeze eggs is 19" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 9, 6:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1007

999

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
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Wyoming Launches Frontier Stable Token Backed by USD on Seven Blockchains, First U.S. State-Issued Stablecoin
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7 months ago

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Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

World Optimism Stock (Permanent)

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "The optimal age to freeze eggs is 19" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram