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Top stories

Jack Smith’s Lawyers Dismiss Hatch Act Inquiry as ‘Imaginary’

Jack Smith’s Lawyers Dismiss Hatch Act Inquiry as ‘Imaginary’

Authors

10

7 months ago

Prediction markets for OSC

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM

17.24%chance

10017501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

966

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

5212503

OptionProbability

Other

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Donald Trump

Yulia Navalnaya

International Court of Justice

Narges Mohammadi

Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Greta Thunberg

duplicate - international Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

UNRWA

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Netanyahu

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Narendra Modi

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Abdullah Öcalan

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

Jimmy Lai

Francesca Albanese

Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

64

12

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

OSCS stocks

Apr 10, 4:37 PM

255147

OptionProbability

NO

YES

121

102

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

Dec 26, 12:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.83%chance

402972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

443

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2090

1821

Will Timothee Chalamet win an Oscar before the 5th Bitcoin halving?

Dec 8, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37%chance

161917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

340

Will the Oscars have an award for stunt workers by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.38%chance

131176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

695

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

51.97%chance

24705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

803

Will a Bollywood or other Indian cinema movie win Best Picture at the Oscars / Academy Awards before the end of 2050?

Mar 25, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.35%chance

22616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

808

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

17.96%chance

19302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

902

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.35%chance

15231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

933

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
US Judiciary
Politics
Jack Smith’s Lawyers Dismiss Hatch Act Inquiry as ‘Imaginary’
Authors
10
7 months ago

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