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Oversight Committee News

    Prediction markets for Oversight Committee

    Epstein files prop bets (ADD YOURS)

    Nov 18, 11:15 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
    14614216

    OptionProbability

    At least one credible mainstream news source reports by EO2026 that the files are either partially redacted or partly missing or suspects the files were altered (opinion section OK)

    However, the administration manages to blacken great parts of the files.

    Something happens or is enforced by Trump to divert the attraction on other things.

    By EOY26 Massie claims that the files have been altered or otherwise significantly not in compliance with the bill's requirements

    At least five people with Wikipedia pages resign due to files

    After blackened papers are made public, there will be a leakage of uncensored files.

    Stacey Plaskett no longer a US House Delegate before 1 Feb 2027?

    A MSM news source speculates partisan bias in redactions (opinion section OK) by EOY2026

    Soon after release, the Trump DOJ launches a raft of investigations against political opponents named in the Epstein files.

    An ongoing DOJ investigation triggered by Trump’s allegations involving Bill Clinton or others will result in the files being sealed and not publicly released despite the Epstein Transparency Act

    Somebody gets prison time

    George Stephanopoulos Leaves ABC before 4th of July 2026

    Files suggest Epstein offered to cooperation/testimony against associates within 1 year of his death.

    Someone in the November 2025 Supreme Court is mentioned in the files

    Any F500 company’s market cap loses 10% within a week of an executive’s involvements with Epstein becoming known

    Trump gets impeached in 2026 in part due to his involvement with Epstein

    Any congressperson gets impeached/removed in 2026 in part due to their involvement with Epstein

    "Bubba" photo released or leaked by EOY26

    At least 10% of current (Nov. 19, '25) House Representatives leave office (by any means) before the next congress is sworn in

    Trump admin vetoes the Nov 18 release

    95

    89

    78

    69

    57

    56

    55

    55

    52

    47

    45

    42

    37

    24

    21

    17

    15

    13

    2

    1

    Ghislaine Maxwell testifies before Congress in 2025?

    Jul 25, 9:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    17.84%chance
    222571

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2146

    466

    Trump leaves office over Epstein files?

    Nov 13, 11:48 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM
    3.27%chance
    241698

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    544

    18

    OptionProbability

    End exclusive dealing contracts

    Prohibit Google defaults on Google products

    Implement a choice screen

    Set up a technical oversight committee

    Force Google to share data with rivals

    Mandate Google to delete data

    Separate Chrome and Search into different companies

    Separate Android and Search into different companies

    87

    67

    66

    50

    45

    41

    26

    19

    OptionProbability

    The word “peace”

    A list of countries responsible for monitoring implementation

    Destruction of tunnel networks and weapons-production facilities

    A clear timeline for Hamas disarmament

    A mechanism to penalize Hamas non-compliance

    An internationally funded weapons buy-back and reintegration program

    The word “amnesty”

    Handover of Hamas authority to a committee of Palestinians under international oversight

    A condition requiring approval by the Israeli government before the agreement takes effect

    The word “Trump” anywhere in the document

    Handover of weapons to a third country outside Palestine

    “voluntary reconciliation facilities” for Palestinian fighters to give up their weapons and receive amnesty

    Handover of weapons to the Palestinian Authority or another Palestinian organization

    Signatures of other militias or armed groups in addition to Hamas

    A clear timeline for IDF withdrawal

    The word “hostage”

    An apology and/or expression of regret

    The word “state”

    The word “Trump” in the title

    An offer to integrate former Hamas members into civilian institutions or a future police or army

    A mechanism to penalize Israeli non-compliance

    90

    83

    74

    66

    66

    59

    59

    59

    59

    55

    50

    50

    41

    41

    38

    36

    25

    24

    23

    22

    20

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    205

    113

    OptionProbability

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    100

    72

    59

    45

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    169

    59

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