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PAC News

    Prediction markets for PAC

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1013

    944

    OptionProbability

    Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

    Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

    ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

    Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

    ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

    Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

    Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

    Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

    Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

    Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

    Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

    Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

    Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

    Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

    Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

    Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

    Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

    Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

    Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

    Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

    Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

    Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

    Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

    Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

    Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

    Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

    Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

    Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

    Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

    Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

    Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

    Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

    Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

    add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

    Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

    Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

    Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

    ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

    ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

    DUPLICATE - NA

    ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

    ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

    ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

    ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

    ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

    ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

    ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

    Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

    Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

    Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

    Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

    Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

    Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

    Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

    Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

    Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

    Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

    Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

    Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

    Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

    Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

    Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

    Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

    Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

    Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

    Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

    Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council

    97

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    56

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    47

    44

    42

    42

    41

    34

    32

    32

    26

    25

    23

    18

    15

    11

    Super Smash Bros. Stocks

    Oct 27, 12:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    4911605

    OptionProbability

    Kirby

    Pit

    Captain Falcon

    Donkey Kong

    Lucina

    Toon Link

    Luigi

    Jigglypuff

    Mario

    Link

    Samus

    Pikachu

    Ness

    Peach

    Bowser

    Ice Climbers

    Sheik

    Zelda

    Dr. Mario

    Pichu

    Falco

    Marth

    Ganondorf

    Roy

    Meta Knight

    Zero Suit Samus

    Wario

    Sonic

    King Dedede

    R.O.B

    Wolf

    Villager

    Shulk

    Bowser Jr.

    Duck Hunt

    Ryu

    Cloud

    Simon Belmont

    King K. Rool

    Steve

    Other

    Yoshi

    Fox

    Young Link

    Mewtwo

    Mr. Game & Watch

    Snake

    Ike

    PKMN Trainer

    Diddy Kong

    Lucas

    Olimar

    Lucario

    Mega Man

    Wii Fit Trainer

    Rosalina & Luma

    Little Mac

    Greninja

    Mii Fighter

    Palutena

    Pac-Man

    Robin

    Corrin

    Bayonetta

    Inkling

    Ridley

    Richter

    Isabelle

    Incineroar

    Piranha Plant

    Joker

    Hero

    Banjo-Kazooie

    Terry Bogard

    Byleth

    24

    22

    7

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Does a better packing of 17 squares into a square exist?

    Feb 10, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    39.95%chance
    392631

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1048

    913

    OptionProbability

    Big Ten Conference:

    Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

    Southeastern Conference (SEC)

    Big 12 Conference: 12

    Conference USA (C-USA

    Sun Belt Conference:

    Independents: 7

    Mountain West Conference (MWC): 12

    Pac-12 Conference

    32

    12

    12

    11

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

    Dec 17, 12:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    7792

    OptionProbability

    Automatic Voter Registration Act

    Redistricting Reform (independent commissions for redistricting)

    Automatic Voter Registration

    Early voting

    Mail-in voting

    Banning Super PACs

    Election Day Reform (Holiday, or moving to a weekend)

    Public Financing for Candidates

    Campaign contribution limitations (individual or corporate)

    National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)

    Campaign finance transparency (no dark money)

    Ranked-Choice Voting

    Approval Voting

    Shortened Campaign Season (<=6 months for primary+general)

    Compulsory voting

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

    39

    39

    32

    31

    28

    28

    10

    9

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Become a lobbyist

    Join a PAC/super PAC

    Start a new business

    Become a cabinet member

    46

    29

    9

    9

    7

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1380

    725

    OptionProbability

    UConn - Jim Mora

    Oregon State - Trent Bray

    Washington State - Jimmy Rogers

    Notre Dame - Marcus Freeman

    45

    45

    43

    33

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    115

    87

    OptionProbability

    San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

    under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

    under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

    double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

    don't do anything ("no build")

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

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