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Prediction markets for Parallel
Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?
Jul 26, 11:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
21.18%chance
4711467
OptionVotes
1929
518
If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?
Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
318436
OptionVotes
1072
965
Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?
Jan 13, 8:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
262359
OptionProbability
38
34
31
26
24
21
20
19
18
14
12
10
9
9
9
8
7
6
Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?
May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
60.27%chance
282217
OptionVotes
1381
858
Will the fallowing be components of South Korea's electoral system prior to their next presidential election
Dec 7, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7900
OptionProbability
87
85
85
85
85
85
76
34
34
34
34
34
28
28
28
24
15
15
15
14
13
13
5
Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?
Dec 24, 4:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
25%chance
21843
OptionVotes
1226
893
OptionVotes
1152
803
Which theorems will be formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028?
Apr 13, 8:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14457
OptionProbability
94
91
90
90
50
44
7
Will the BLS show growth in delivery truck driver employment through 2029?
May 7, 9:29 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
52.15%chance
12410
OptionVotes
1104
876
Can we productively coordinate with people in parallel universes?
Mar 26, 12:42 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
19.89%chance
15318
OptionVotes
1085
963
OptionVotes
1017
976
Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?
Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.38%chance
12254
OptionVotes
1011
889
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